Sunday, January 8, 2012

Possible Declining Players in 2012

Here’s my list of projected players on Tour whose performance will decline in 2012.


Adjusted Scoring Avg: 32
Money Rank: 60

Clubhead Speed: 111.7 mph
Advanced Total Driving: 79

Birdie Zone: 104
Safe Zone: 72
Danger Zone: 7

Overall Zone Play: 26

Putts Gained: 148

Short Game: 131

Allenby’s ballstriking was still very, very good. However, his Birdie Zone, Safe Zone and Advanced Total Driving dipped quite a bit. He’s never been a good putter or Short Game player. I think his struggles with ballstriking stemmed primarily from his rapid loss in clubhead speed over the years as back in 2007, he was averaging 116.3 mph of clubhead speed. It appears that his clubhead speed will only continue to drop and that will make life even more difficult for him on the golf course.


Adjusted Scoring Avg: 30
Money Rank: 13

Clubhead Speed: 116.7 mph
Advanced Total Driving: 22

Birdie Zone: 165
Safe Zone: 140
Danger Zone: 140

Overall Zone Play: 169

Putts Gained: 97

Short Game: 158

Bradley’s play in the Zones was poor last year, but he made it up with great Advanced Total Driving and generating clubhead speed while hitting the ball quite high. As I stated in Pro Golf Synopsis, there’s no real evidence that belly putters work for Tour golfers while the Long Putter seems to work for Tour golfers who have used it for at least 5 years. Bradley uses the belly putter and if he goes to the Long Putter, it will likely take him a few years to get good with it.

I believe that Bradley’s swing is designed more for driving the ball well than playing well from the Zones and Danger Zone play is far more important to success on Tour than driving


Adjusted Scoring Avg: 16
Money Rank: 12

Clubhead Speed: 117.0 mph
Advanced Total Driving: 155

Birdie Zone: 117
Safe Zone: 56
Danger Zone: 3

Overall Zone Play: 19

Putts Gained: 134

Short Game: 75

One of the things I would like to do in the 2012 Pro Golf Synopsis is to figure out from a statistical standpoint, where a golfer’s ‘prime years’ tend to be. While that is still being researched, I would imagine that Phil is at the end of his rope. I think Phil will still probably pull a victory out this year and still have a good year financially, but I really question if he can contend in Majors that are not at Augusta National at this point. His Short Game play suffered last year and his clubhead speed has gradually dipped over the years. Furthermore, it appears that his putting has not improved.


Adjusted Scoring Avg: 58
Money Rank: 88

Clubhead Speed: 114.5 mph
Advanced Total Driving: 65

Birdie Zone: 33
Safe Zone: 36
Danger Zone: 43

Overall Zone Play: 22

Putts Gained: 155

Short Game: 59

The biggest obstacle for DLIII is that he is now the Ryder Cup captain and almost every Ryder Cup captain I can think of has fallen off the earth the year they become captain. Speaking of which, I’m not too crazy about DLIII being the captain given his Ryder Cup record and by looking at some of his own course strategy metrics. Hopefully, he’ll entrust good friend Paul Azinger for advice.


Adjusted Scoring Avg: 8
Money Rank: 25

Clubhead Speed: 116.0 mph
Advanced Total Driving: 131

Birdie Zone: 65
Safe Zone: 155
Danger Zone: 119

Overall Zone Play: 122

Putts Gained: 33

Short Game: 30

The past few years Howell has gotten by with his putting and Short Game play. One of the issues I see is that his clubhead speed is on the decline (120 mph in 2007). I just don’t know how much longer he can keep it up with his weak driving and iron play. He also hits the ball very low, sometimes the lowest on Tour. I think that tends to work against golfers on Tour given the modern day designs of Tour courses.


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