What To Look For: 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Webb Simpson won the Waste Management Phoenix Open last week:




Simpson was one of my projected winner’s picks at 14/1 odds. It goes to show how the changes to the design of TPC Scottsdale have allowed shorter hitters to have a chance to win there. I also projected the winning score as well (-17)

While Simpson has excellent performance metrics, he is usually the one guy on Tour that I find consistently utilizes the best on-course strategy and playing holes that are in line with what the numbers project. He’s a fascinating player given his swing with a severely cupped (left wrist extension) at the top of the swing and an open club face at p6 and can still strike the ball extremely well.

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This week the Tour returns to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.




Pebble Beach Golf Links was designed by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant in 1919 and then extensively re-designed by H. Chandler Egan. It was also renovated and re-designed by Alister MacKenzie, Robert Hunter, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer over the decades.

This is the last of the multiple course events on Tour for the time being (thank god). The cut will be after 54-holes as each player will play Pebble, Spyglass and Monterey Peninsula in the first three rounds. Those that make the cut will then play Pebble again on Sunday.

In general, the feedback I get from Tour players is that they enjoy the courses, but the Pro-Am makes for a giant cluster and super long rounds. The TV footage is usually horrible because of players playing the three different courses and inevitably a few players will get in contention and you never get to see them hit a shot until Sunday.

The real allure of the event on TV is Pebble itself (although the other courses are beautiful, you just don’t get to see them that much). The secondary allure was the celebrity amateurs playing the event. Most notably Jack Lemmon and Clint Eastwood. Now, the Pro-Am is mostly filled with corporate executives that most people could not pick out of a lineup and are about as personable as learning about corporate stock derivatives.

Anyway, putting is a big deal at Pebble Beach. It usually has the lowest make percentages on Tour and has the slowest greens as well. So much for the theory that slower greens mean better putting. The 3-putt percentage is not that high there because the greens are about half the size of the modern Tour course designs.

The greens have steep slopes and thus they need to be made slow in order to keep the ball on the green, particularly when the famous Pebble wind comes around. Thus, this is the course that many good putters have an advantage at.

The make %’s have improved on the course in recent years. This is due to better ownership that has done a much better job with the conditioning of the course. It’s in its best shape in decades.

Here’s a look at the weather forecast for the week.

So it will be dry, but cool. As I’ve explained in previous versions of Pro Golf Synopsis, my research shows that scores start to rise when the winds get 12 mph or faster. My guess is that the winner will likely come from playing Monterey on Saturday as that is the easiest course of the three courses to play.

Projected Winning Score: -17

The final critical hole at Pebble is the 575 yard par-5 14th hole.

The diagram doesn’t do the hole justice as you’re hitting to an elevated fairway that makes for a blind tee shot.

There’s also trees up by the green and they reek havoc on approach wedge shots.

This is a severely sloped green and they usually have a Sunday flag location front left. It not only makes for a difficult approach, but a very fast putt as it slopes very downward from there.

The winner could very well be the player that can manage to make 2 birdies on this hole.

3JACK’S FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson +600
Patrick Cantlay +1,000
Brandt Snedeker +2,200
Matt Kuchar +2,500
Graeme McDowell +3,300


3JACK’S DARK HORSE PICKS

Adam Hadwin +6,600
Vaughn Taylor +8,000
Nick Watney +10,000
Brian Stuard +20,000
Peter Malnati +40,000






3JACK