What To Look For: 2020 Waste Management Phoenix Open

Last week, Marc Leishman found his way back to the winner's circle with a victory at Torrey Pines:



Leishman was at 50/1 odds to win and ranked 31st in my list of probable winners.  If you read 2019 Pro Golf Synopsis you would know that Leishman ranked 1st in Red Zone Play (175-225 yards) in the 2018-2019 season.  His struggles off the tee were due to his strong right miss bias and it appears he has worked that out. 

Jon Rahm was at 8/1 odds and finished in second place.  I had him at 18th in my picks list.  I was rooting for Ryan Palmer who was one of my picks at 50/1 odds, but a final day 77 blew him out of the water.

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This week the Tour comes to stadium golf with the famous 16th hole:



Personally, I love the scene.  It goes against golf's nature, but the scene is something to behold and there's nothing wrong with it happening once a year.  

In fact, if every tournament had this...while against golf's nature...it would be good for golf in the long run because it means more people are watching golf and more people will get interested in the game and supply their discretionary income towards the game.

But, what's funny about the tournament is that the 16th hole is a very bland hole and the course isn't very well liked by Tour players.  But the atmosphere is off the charts and that makes Tour players want to play the event.  

The old design greatly favored bombers and players that hit it long could just bomb it anywhere with little recourse.  The re-design got a bit goofy for my tastes, but it took the reckless bombers advantage from them and made it more of an irons play golf course

You may also recall from 2019 Pro Golf Synopsis that TPC Scottsdale is one of the courses where players playing the event from the previous week have one of the largest drop-offs in Strokes Gained - Putting.  Thus, I would be a little averse to taking a player that played Torrey Pines last week.

Here's a look at the weather this week:

Projected Winning Score: -17


While the 16th hole gets all of the attention, the 17th hole is far more critical in separating the contenders from the rest of the field.

Only about 2-4% of the field will lay-up off the tee.  About 10% will find the water.  Usually though they find the water left.  Rarely will a player find the water behind the green.

The most difficult location will be the back left location.  

However, it's still a very low scoring hole and the back left location is only slightly more difficult than the other pin locations.


3JACK'S FAVORITES

Justin Thomas +900
Hideki Matsuyama +1,400
Webb Simpson +1,400
Rickie Fowler +1,600
Xander Schauffele +1,800


3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Collin Morikawa +3,300
Victor Hovland +5,000
Byeong-Hun An +6,600
Corey Conners +8,000
Andrew Landry +10,000




3JACK