What To Look For: 2020 Sony Open

The Tour returns to Waialae Country Club for the 2020 Sony Open:



This is one of my favorite times of the year for the Tour as the ‘offseason’ is officially over and you can only dream of what it would be like to be a Tour player that gets to play Kapalua, Waialae and then Palm Springs in January. Then they are off to Torrey Pines, followed by the hoopla and ballyhoo of stadium golf in Scottsdale. It’s also a time of the season and with the course designs where unknowns and journeymen that get rejuvenated tend to flourish or a top player can establish their dominance for the rest of season. And given that this is a Ryder Cup year, it all becomes even more important.

Waialae Country Club is located in the south eastern part of Honolulu. It’s a Seth Raynor design playing to a par-72 and roughly 7,125 yards. It routinely has one of the lowest hit fairway percentages for the field as the average will hover around 50%. This is due to narrow fairways (roughly 26 yards wide) and the wind. Since it’s a Raynor design, there is quite a few tee shots that force the golfer to lay-up off the tee.

Despite the low hit fairway percentage, the average hit GIR % is around 70%. The greens are fairly receptive and if the golfer can find the fairway, the approaches are not overly difficult.

There is a polarizing opinion on Tour about Waialae. Many players love, others hate it. From the vibe I’ve received about the course is that those that don’t like it feels like it favors the shorter hitters too much and there’s too much luck involved due to the wind and narrow fairways. Those that love the course seem to really love the old-school design flavor to it The other factor in all of this is the expense and experience of Hawaii. It’s a pricey trip to make to Hawaii, but others will embrace it and bring their families over.

Waialae is mostly about the versatility of approach shots in terms of being able to precisely hit wedge shots as well as mid-length approach shots. Driving is also important here, but good luck in projecting who will drive well here given the wind and narrow fairways.

The last critical hole on the course is the par-5 18th hole.

Last year the hole played to 4.51 strokes on average. This was despite the field only finding the fairway 29.8% of the time. The big key is for the player to hit it at least the distance that is between the right fairway bunker and the 2nd left fairway bunker. That is roughly about 285 yards. Players that the ball to that distance, even if they found the fairway bunker, saw their projected scores drop dramatically.

Using The 65/50 Rule as described in 2019 Pro Golf Synopsis (purchase here 2019 PRO GOLF SYNOPSIS), the target off the tee for the average Tour player should be just left of the tree that is highlighted by the yellow box. With rollout, it’s easy to see why the fairway is often missed on this hole.

Projected Winning Score: -22


3JACK'S FAVORITES

Justin Thomas +500
Collin Morikawa +1,600
Hideki Matsuyama +1,600
Joaquin Niemann +2,500


3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Abraham Ancer +4,000
Corey Conners +4,000
Kevin Kisner +4,000
Chez Reavie +5,000
Brian Stuard +6,600
Emiliano Grillo +8,000






3JACK

Update 1/5/2020 ***NEW*** 2019 Pro Golf Synopsis E-Book on Sale!

I am pleased to announce that the 2019 version of Pro Golf Synopsis is now on sale for only $10.99!

The book is available for purchase by clicking the link below:

PURCHASE THE 2019 PRO GOLF SYNOPSIS E-BOOK

Pro Golf Synopsis is the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf and the indispensable to the 2019 Golf Season.  It has 354 pages of valuable information and statistical insight involved with the game. 

This year's version of the book has detailed findings from launch monitor research data collected from low handicaps and Touring professionals over the past three years.  It also involves a new Statistically Based Golf Strategy to help golfer's better prepare their rounds and lower their scores.

There is also the 188 player-by-player analysis of the 2019 season. 

Here is the table of contents (click on the picture for a larger view)

What To Look For: 2019 RSM Classic

The Tour comes back to Sea Island for the 10th annual RSM Classic


The RSM Classic is played on two courses with players playing one of their first two rounds on the Plantation course. If they make the cut, they play three of their rounds on the Seaside course. The Plantation course is generally much easier than the Seaside course.

Sea Island is one of the favorite residences for Tour players and thus the Sea Island course is very well liked. The tournament is an interesting one because the field is somewhat strong, but rookie players, particularly those from the southeast, have had strong performances here.

This is a course that emphasizes accurate driving over distance driving as well as long and short iron shots. Generally, the winners here have been very good putters of the ball, but relying on putting metrics to determine winners is usually an exercise of futility.

The final critical hole on the course is the par-3 17th.

As far as critical holes on Tour, this design is pretty typical for par-3’s with its shallow green. If the wind is blowing, particularly with a tailwind, it can come down to luck between making par or making double bogey.

If the tailwind knocks the ball down too much, now the ball hits the front bunker and possibly becomes a fried egg. If it doesn’t knock down the ball, then it’s impossible to get the ball to hold the green.

Projected Winning Score: -20

3JACK’S FAVORITES

Webb Simpson +800
Charles Howell III +2,500
Russell Henley +4,000
Jim Furyk +5,000
Vaughn Taylor +5,000


3JACK’S DARK HORSE PICKS

Joel Dahmen +6,600
Kevin Streelman +8,000
Sam Ryder +12,500
Mark Hubbard +12,500
Sepp Straka +20,000




3JACK

What To Look For: 2019 Shriners Childrens Hospital Open

The Tour comes back to Las Vegas for the Shriners Childrens Hospital Open.


TPC Summerlin was designed by Bobby Weed in 1991.  It plays to 7,255 yards at a par-72 with a course rating 74.4 and a slope of 137.

The course is fairly well received by the players as Weed is a solid course architect who also designed TPC River Highlands and TPC Tampa Bay.  I've never been to TPC River Highlands, but the course is very well liked on Tour.  TPC Tampa Bay gets more criticism, but I really enjoy the course and I think the shaky conditioning with the expensive rates tend to turn people off to it.

Summerlin is one of the toughest, if not the toughest, course on Tour on shots around the green.  It's a high GIR % course where players need to make birdies.  Most of the strokes gained/lost will be from 150-175 yards.

The last critical hole is the 444 yard par-4 18th hole.

The tee shot and the putting are what lead to the deviation in scores being so high on #18. 

The pros will hit the fairway about 78% of the time, but the misses are either in the waste area on the left, the fairway bunkers or even the water (about 3% of tee shots find the water).  They'll hit their average approach shot to 27-feet, but this is the 6th most difficult green to putt on.

Based on the data having the average drive here at 296 yards, most pros will want to have a target just left of the fairway bunkers on the right.  The longer hitters can have a target more left of those bunkers and the shorter hitters will have a target more directly at the bunkers.


Projected Winning Score: -20


3JACK'S FAVORITES

Patrick Cantlay +1,000
Bryson DeChambeau +1,600
Adam Scott +1,800
Tony Finau +2,200
Hideki Matsuyama +2,500
Collin Morikawa +2,500


3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Adam Hadwin +4,000
Jason Kokrak +4,000
Matthew Wolff +5,000
Jhonattan Vegas +10,000





3JACK

What To Look For: 2019 Safeway Open

The Tour is back at Silverado Country Club for the Safeway Open.


Let’s see how the top-5 and anybody within 3-strokes of the lead last week’s odds to win:

1st – Sebastian Munoz (+6,600)
2nd – Sung-Jae Im (+1,600)
3rd – Byeong-Hun An (+2,200)
t-4th – Kevin Streelman (+8,000)
t-4th – Carlos Ortiz (+12,500)
t-6th – Dylan Fritelli (+5,000)
t-6th – Bronson Burgoon (+6,600)
t-6th – George McNeill (+50,000)
t-6th – Dominic Bozzelli (+20,000)
t-6th – Harris English (+6,600)


Silverado was re-designed by Johnny Miller. Miller has stated that he’s not that great of an architect, but I’ve always found his courses very enjoyable. Most of the Tour pros I’ve talked to like the course, although the greens can be a little frustrating as there are a lot of saddles and crowns which are always tough reads.

Most of this course is about ballstriking, particularly from 175-200 yards. Driving is a factor, although not a huge one. But, you don’t have to be long off the tee to be effective off the tee at Silverado.

Unfortunately, the last critical hole is the par-4, 465 yard 13th hole. There’s not much to the hole, but it’s fairly birdie-able and bogey-able. The biggest difficulty of the hole is the length combined with only about 52% of the field finds the fairway.

Projected Winning Score: -16


3JACK’S FAVORITES

Justin Thomas +650
Patrick Cantlay +1,000
Hideki Matsuyama +1,400
Sung-Jae Im +2,000
Bryson DeChambeau +2,000
Byeong-Hun An +2,800


3JACK’S DARK HORSE PICKS

Kevin Streelman +5,000
Charles Howell III +6,600
Adam Hadwin +8,000
Sung Kang +12,500





3JACK

What to Look For: 2019 Sanderson Farms Championship

Here’s a new feature I wanted to add…looking at any player that finished in the top-5 last week and/or 3 shots from the lead…along with their odds to win at the beginning of the week:

1st - Joaquin Niemann (+2,200)
2nd - Tom Hoge (+15,000)
t-3rd - Brian Harman (+5,000)
t-3rd - Nate Lashley (+12,500)
t-3rd - Harris English (+15,000)
t-3rd - Richy Werenski (+20,000)

This can help explain why Niemann won by so many shots as the rest of the contenders were mostly massive long shots (sans Harman). And Niemann was one of the favorites to win.

The Tour comes back to Mississippi and the CC of Jackson for the Sanderson Farms Championship:


Typically the Sanderson Farms Championship has one of the weakest fields on Tour and has been mostly reserved for rookies and players with partial exempt status or guys that were in the 100-125 ranking in FedEx points in the previous season. Due to the change of the scheduling the field is stronger this year that it has been in the past. The course has typically favored the players that are best at longer approach shots. However, this comes with the preamble of the event typically having weak fields and weaker fields typically mean weaker long approach shot play. Thus, if the field was as strong as say the field at the Memorial where more players are adept on long approach shots, the course might yield more strokes in a different part of the game.

The last critical hole of CC Jackson is the 330-yard, par-4 15th hole.

The hole is certainly drivable although there are quite a few layups. Birdies (red dots) were made from everywhere regardless if the player layed-up or went for the green. The data shows that going for the green is the correct play as a higher percentage of birdies went to those that went for the green and it puts eagle into play.

PROJECTED WINNING SCORE: -20


3JACK’S FAVORITES

Joaquin Niemann +1,400
Sung-Jae Im +1,600
Byeong-Hun An +2,200
Lucas Glover +2,500
Corey Conners +2,800


3JACK’S DARK HORSE PICKS

Emiliano Grillo +4,000
Sepp Straka +10,000
Sam Ryder +12,500
Adam Svensson +17,500
Tyler Duncan +25,000




3JACK

What To Look For: A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier Classic

The Tour comes back to the Greenbrier to play Old White TPC.  Here's a cool preview from Steve Elkington on his Secret Golf YouTube channel.



Old White TPC is an old school course as it was designed by CB McDonald and not by coincidence it is a well respected course by the players.

It's a par-70 playing to 7,286 yards but is fairly wide open and forgiving off the tee.  Expect low scores and most of the strokes gained or lost coming off Red Zone play and wedge play.

Projected Winning Score: -17

3JACK'S FAVORITES

Joaquin Niemann +2,200
Marc Leishman +2,200
Sung-Jae Im +2,200
Byeong-Hun An +2,800
Russell Henley +3,300


3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Russell Knox +6,600
Kevin Streelman +6,600
Andrew Landry +8,000
Nick Watney +10,000
Tyler Duncan +20,000