What To Look For: 2021 Pebble Beach AT&T

The Tour comes to Pebble Beach for the ATT Classic:

 

Due to COVID-19, the Pro-Am will not take place and the event will be played at only Pebble Beach Golf Links and the Spyglass Hill Golf Course.

Like many of the multiple course events, the predictive values are a bit low here.  Generally the Tour pros I have talked to like Pebble Beach, but the weather, the schedule and the Pro-Am are not to the liking of a lot of players.  Playing 6+ hour rounds and catching a cold before you hit bigger purse events like Riviera, the Honda Classic, etc. is not appealing.  However, the course has really improved its conditions over the past 5 years and the greens have been much improved.  Typically Pebble has the lowest make percentages on the greens on Tour, but now it's progessing towards the mean.

Pebble is a shining example of old golf course design theories with the greens being roughly half the size of modern course green complexes with most of the greens having some tilt from front to back which penalizes approach shots that miss long or to the side and very undulated greens with slower green speeds.

It's more of a mid-iron and putting course, although Dustin Johnson has destroyed the course thru superior driving and he just 'gets' the course.  But he's not playing this week as he withdrew for the event.

The final critical hole is the classic 18th hole.

This was designated the toughest driving hole on the course last year.  Tee shots on average were only traveling 266 yards.  Most golfers will try to put the tee shot left of the trees on the right side of the fairway.

It also ranked as the most difficult green to putt on the course.

Projected Winning Score: -19

3JACK"S FAVORITES

Patrick Cantlay +750

Daniel Berger +1,400

Paul Casey +1,600

Jason Day +1,800

Jordan Spieth +2,000

3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Sam Burns +3,500

Peter Malnati +5,500

James Hahn +6,600

Joel Dahmen +6,600

Mark Hubbard +10,000

Ben Martin +30,000

3JACK

What To Look For: 2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open

Patrick Reed wins at Torrey Pines last week.

 

At one point I had picks of Ortiz (125/1), Im (40/1), Hovland (25/1), Finau (18/1), Schauffel (12/1) and Rahm (7/1) all in contention on the weekend. Reed was ranked 38th on my list of likely to win. He has not had an impressive season thus far, hamstrung by awful Yellow Zone (125-175 yards) play (191st) and has been a so-so Red Zone (175-225 yards) player (122nd) along with decent driving off the tee (99th in Driving Effectiveness). But he putted lights out at Palm Springs despite missing the cut and one has to give the guy credit...Reed has an incredible amount of faith in himself as he can play poorly for long stretches at a time and then suddenly catch fire and look like the best player on the planet.

This week the Tour heads to Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.



The Phoenix Open started in 1932 and is mainly known for the 16th hole which is a rather non-descript golf hole, but is one of the most famous holes on the Tour. What started off as a lovefest of golf and booze from Arizona residents turned into a must-go social event in the area with 'stadium golf.' In many ways, I think this prompted the invention of Top Golf and the Golf Shack, massive driving range centers that feature food, alcohol, games and a stadium golf atmosphere.

The course was re-designed in 2014 by Tom Weiskopf. Most of the players I've talked to generally dislike the course and the re-design didn't help matters any. The re-design made the fairways narrower and implemented some waste areas that are in odd positions that are not to the players' liking. However, the re-design gave players who are not bombers a chance to win there as the old design was becoming almost exclusively a bomber's track. Many of the bombers are not playing here due to playing the Saudi International which features exorbitant appearance fees that are too much money for most players to turn down.

TPC Scottsdale is more of a ballstriker's course now, requiring skilled driving, long iron play, and precision on the par-5's is where most of the strokes will be lost/gained. The final critical hole is the 18th.

The 18th is the final critical hole on the course. Most players use driver and have this line off the tee.

The data suggests that laying up with 3-wood is the better play because it takes the bunkers out of play and thus greatly eliminates double bogey or worse. The hole usually plays around 4.03-ish from a stroke average perspective. Players that lay-up off the tee are not likely to make birdie, but a 2-putt par should garner them some strokes on the field. In the end, it's a hole one should use driver if they feel they need a birdie or lay-up off the tee if par is sufficient.



Projected Winning Score: -17

3JACK'S FAVORITES

Jon Rahm +650
Xander Schauffele +1,000
Rory McIlroy +1,100
Bubba Watson +3,300
Will Zalatoris +3,300


3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Sam Burns +6,600 

Corey Conners +6,600 

Carlos Ortiz +8,000 

Keegan Bradley +15,000 

Wyndham Clark +15,000





3JACK

What To Look For: 2021 Farmers Insurance Open

Si-Woo Kim wins the American Express in Palm Springs:

Kim's victory was fitting given Palm Springs is one of the most unpredictable stops on Tour and Kim is one of the least predictable players on Tour. But this week the Tour goes to Southern California to play Torrey Pines.

Torrey Pines is another split course tournament where each player plays 1 round on the North Course and those that make the cut will play the final two rounds on the South Course. The South Course is where they play when they hold the US Open or PGA Championship at Torrey Pines. It is usually the longest course they play all year on Tour tipping out at 7,765 yards.

Torrey Pines is a municipal course where San Diego residents get to play for only $45. Non-resident fees change depending on time and season, but they usually go for around $230. On the weekends it is a first come, first serve booking basis.

Both courses feature narrow fairways. The field average for fairways hit will be around 50%. The North Course is much shorter and the green countours are a little flatter which makes for lower scoring. The green contours on the South Course are some of the hilliest of any on Tour and they aver slow. Typically the South Course will have the second loest make percentages on Tour next to Pebble Beach. But as Pebble Beach's greens have improved in recent years Torrey may end up having the lowest make percentages on Tour.

There has been some talk in recent months from Tour players, particularly Kevin Kisner, about how short hitters won't win at Torrey Pines. I think that's a bit of a misnomer given victories from shorter hitters like Brandt Snedeker and Ben Crane not too long ago. In fact, Rocco Mediate was 170th out of 197 golfers in driving distance in 2008 when he faced Tiger Woods in a playoff to win the US Open.

Certainly, distance helps here. And it helps a little more at Torrey Pines than say Bay Hill, but short hitters can win here...particularly if the course is playing tough. This is usually due to the green complexes favoring better putters which have a tendency to be shorter hitters

Nonetheless, from the Tour players I have talked to over the years it's a polarizing course. Many love the course and the backdrop of the ocean. The entire experience is pleasant as if you're coming from LA, once you get on I-5 South around San Clemente it's one of the most pleasant and beautiful driving experiences I've ever had in this county.

But others avoid Torrey Pines at all costs. They can't stand the length and the extreme green complexes with 24-yard wide fairways and there's not enough good views of the ocean for them to consider it a top course on Tour.

This course is usually won thru long iron play and quality driving. The final critical hole is the 18th a par-5.



Projected Winning Score: -13



3JACK'S FAVORITES

Jon Rahm +700

Rory McIlroy +850

Xander Schauffele +1,200

Tony Finau +1,800

Viktor Hovland +2,500

3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Sung-Jae Im +4,000

Bubba Watson +5,000

Corey Conners +10,000

Carlos Ortiz +12,500

Wyndham Clark +15,000

What to Look For: 2021 American Express

Kevin Na wins at Waialae

This week the Tour returns to Palm Springs.

The American Express tournament has a cut after 54-holes.  Each player plays one round at La Quinta CC, one at the Jack Nicklaus Tournament course and then 1 round at the PGA West Stadium Course.  Then the final round is played again at the PGA West Stadium Course.

This is usually the biggest birdie-fest on Tour.  It's mainly due to the lack of length and very receptive greens.  Usually the proximity to the cup on Yellow Zone shots is the shortest on Tour and the same with shots from 10-20 yards.  But in general most strokes are lost and gained from the Yellow Zone here.

The problem is that it's such an easy layout of courses projecting winners or top finishers is extremely difficult.

Projected Winning Score: -26

3JACK'S FAVORITES

Patrick Cantlay +1,100

Patrick Reed +1,600

Brooks Koepka +2,000

Sung-Jae Im +2,000

3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Sam Burns +5,000

What To Look For: 2021 Sony Open

 Last week, Harris English won at Kapalua at 33/1 odds.

I had English ranked 8th most likely to win, but only selected 6 picks due to a limited field (really, I did :) )

This week the Tour heads to Waialae for the Sony Open

I've always been a fan of the Sony Open. Maybe it's my fascination of Hawaii, it being the first full field Tour event of the year or the unknown Tour pros that pop up and make money at the event, The Sony Open is one of my favorite events on Tour.

Waialae CC is a private club on the Eastern shore of Honolulu.  It was built in 1927 with Seth Raynor as the architect.  

Despite my love for The Sony Open, it's not a favorite of most Tour players.  It's an expensive trip over to Hawaii and the purse size of $6.6 million is in line with the Sanderson Farms Classic.  The course design is not all that well liked either.  Typically, Waialae gets a few votes for 'worst course on Tour' by Tour players.

Raynor's designs usually feature a lot of lay-up tee shots and he has that at Waialae due to sharp turning doglegs.

A few years ago they widened the fairways a bit as Waialae would usually yield one of the lowest hit fairway percentages on Tour, usually less than 50%. However the field hit 65% of their fairways last year due to the widening of the fairways.  This should likely help out the better drivers of the ball. Prior to the widening of the fairways, finding the fairway often boiled down to luck and the standard deviation in both driving distance and fairways hit was low.  Now the deviation in hit fairways is slightly higher and that projects to help out the superior skilled drivers to a small degree.

Most of the shots gained/lost should come off the tee and on mid-range and short-wedge range shots.  

The last Critical Hole on the course is the par-5 18th hole.

The 18th is the easiest driving hole on the course and should play well under par for the event (think of a scoring average ~4.3 strokes).  And if a player can hit a tee shot of 290+ yards that finds the fairway, they are highly like to make at least birdie.

I suspect the target for most players on 18 will be on the right edge of the first left fairway bunker.

If the wind is in their face, they'll need to move the target to the right of the first left fairway bunker.

What makes this an easy driving hole is that typically it's playing with a tailwind off the shore from the east.   The general shot dispersion for a Tour player has then hitting it further on misses to the left than to the right.  So in this case shots that miss the target to the left play nicely into the dogleg and should carry the left fairway bunkers, easily.

PROJECTED WINNING SCORE: -18

3JACK'S FAVORITES

Webb Simpson +1,200

Collin Morikawa +1,400

Harris English +1,600

Joaquin Niemann +2,500

Ryan Palmer +3,300

Russell Henley +3,300

3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Emiliano Grillo +6,600

Scott Piercy +10,000

Henrik Norlander +15,000

Harry Higgs +22,500

3JACK

What To Look For: Sentry Tournament of Champions

 The start of the 2021 year of PGA Tour golf comes to us with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua Plantation in Hawaii.

Kapalua is on the northwest shore of the island of Maui and is owned by the publicly held corporation, The Maui Land & Pineapple Company.  

They have two courses at Kapalua Resort...the Bay Course playing at 6,600 yards and the Plantation course playing at a par-73 at 7,500+ yards.  The tournament is on the Plantation course and some of the longest drives all season will be hit here due to the hilly terrain and wide open fairways.

Most strokes will be gained and lost on long approaches and short 1/2-3/4 wedge shots.  Expect about 70%+ of the GIR to be hit by the field, but if the wind picks up then some short game around the green shots will be a factor because it's a very difficult course to get up-and-down and there usually is a high standard deviation in scrambling percentage.

The course itself is generally well liked by the Tour pros, but not so much the caddies because it's so hilly.  But it's a very limited field, big purse and no cut and you're in Maui...so who can complain?

It's tough to complain about views like this:

The final Critical Hole at Kapalua is the 360 yard 16th hole.

What makes the hole has such a large deviation in score is that it's a short hole, but the fairway is practically split in two with by the 3 fairway bunkers.  This is where Bryson DeChambeau should have a large advantage as carrying those bunkers should be a piece of cake.

Projected Winning Score:  -23

3JACK'S FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson +600

Justin Thomas +700

Bryson DeChambeau +1,100

Patrick Cantlay +1,800

Collin Morikawa +2,200

3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICK

Ryan Palmer +10,000 

3JACK

What To Look For: 2020 Shriners Hospital for Children Open

Sergio Garcia won the Sanderson Farms Championship

Sergio put in a dominating performance from tee to green. Here's how he ranked at Sanderson Farms (out of 144 players):

Driving Effectiveness: 2nd

Green Zone (75-125 yards): 12th

Yellow Zone (125-175 yards): 37th

Red Zone (175-225 yards): 15th

I feel these alternate field events should be considered by more full-time Tour players.  It's a good way to take advantage of weaker fields and gain valuable FedEx points and at least get into a groove early into the season.  And if you win, like Sergio did, you've solidified a spot at Kapalua which is usually a 30-man event which greatly increases your odds of finishing in the top-5 and there's no cut so it's an automatic pay day.

And this may make Sergio a good pick for the Masters in November.

***

This week the Tour heads back to Las Vegas and TPC Summerlin for the Shriners Hospital for Children Open:

The inaugural event occurred in 1983 as the Panasonic Las Vegas Pro Celebrity Classic which was won by Fuzzy Zoeller.  It was a 90-hole event held at Las Vegas Country Club.  Since then it moved to other venues but has stuck with TPC Summerlin since 2001.  

TPC Summerlin is a private club designed by Bobby Weed.  Weed has designed numerous courses in Florida and personally I've enjoyed his designs.  Most of the players' opinions I've heard on the course are positive, but I'm sure that is partly due to many Tour players either residing in the Las Vegas area or in nearby Scottsdale.  Las Vegas has become a common residence for Tour players in recent years because of the weather, lack of state income tax and the tremendous private courses and facilities offered to them.

The course plays to a par-71 for the tournament at 7,255 yards at 2,700 feet above sea level.  Driving does have its importance here, but most strokes are gained and lost on mid-length approach shots. TPC Summerlin usually has the most difficult or one of the most difficult short game shots around the green on the entire Tour schedule.

The projected final Critical Hole on the course is the par-4, 442 yards, 12th hole.

There's not a lot to this hole other than approach shots can land in the water. The drive isn't even that difficult, but if a player finds the fairway bunker off the tee they can be looking at bogey/double bogey scenarios compared to a good drive down the middle that looks at birdie/par scenarios.

Projected Winning Score: -23

3JACK'S FAVORITES

Bryson DeChambeau +700

Webb Simpson +1,000

Patrick Cantlay +2,000

Hideki Matsuyama +2,000

Collin Morikawa +2,000

Matthew Wolff +2,500

3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Sergio Garcia +4,000

Stewart Cink +12,500

Adam Schenk +15,000

MJ Daffue +20,000

3JACK