Wednesday, September 25, 2019

What To Look For: 2019 Safeway Open

The Tour is back at Silverado Country Club for the Safeway Open.

Let’s see how the top-5 and anybody within 3-strokes of the lead last week’s odds to win:

1st – Sebastian Munoz (+6,600)
2nd – Sung-Jae Im (+1,600)
3rd – Byeong-Hun An (+2,200)
t-4th – Kevin Streelman (+8,000)
t-4th – Carlos Ortiz (+12,500)
t-6th – Dylan Fritelli (+5,000)
t-6th – Bronson Burgoon (+6,600)
t-6th – George McNeill (+50,000)
t-6th – Dominic Bozzelli (+20,000)
t-6th – Harris English (+6,600)

Silverado was re-designed by Johnny Miller. Miller has stated that he’s not that great of an architect, but I’ve always found his courses very enjoyable. Most of the Tour pros I’ve talked to like the course, although the greens can be a little frustrating as there are a lot of saddles and crowns which are always tough reads.

Most of this course is about ballstriking, particularly from 175-200 yards. Driving is a factor, although not a huge one. But, you don’t have to be long off the tee to be effective off the tee at Silverado.

Unfortunately, the last critical hole is the par-4, 465 yard 13th hole. There’s not much to the hole, but it’s fairly birdie-able and bogey-able. The biggest difficulty of the hole is the length combined with only about 52% of the field finds the fairway.

Projected Winning Score: -16


Justin Thomas +650
Patrick Cantlay +1,000
Hideki Matsuyama +1,400
Sung-Jae Im +2,000
Bryson DeChambeau +2,000
Byeong-Hun An +2,800


Kevin Streelman +5,000
Charles Howell III +6,600
Adam Hadwin +8,000
Sung Kang +12,500


Wednesday, September 18, 2019

What to Look For: 2019 Sanderson Farms Championship

Here’s a new feature I wanted to add…looking at any player that finished in the top-5 last week and/or 3 shots from the lead…along with their odds to win at the beginning of the week:

1st - Joaquin Niemann (+2,200)
2nd - Tom Hoge (+15,000)
t-3rd - Brian Harman (+5,000)
t-3rd - Nate Lashley (+12,500)
t-3rd - Harris English (+15,000)
t-3rd - Richy Werenski (+20,000)

This can help explain why Niemann won by so many shots as the rest of the contenders were mostly massive long shots (sans Harman). And Niemann was one of the favorites to win.

The Tour comes back to Mississippi and the CC of Jackson for the Sanderson Farms Championship:

Typically the Sanderson Farms Championship has one of the weakest fields on Tour and has been mostly reserved for rookies and players with partial exempt status or guys that were in the 100-125 ranking in FedEx points in the previous season. Due to the change of the scheduling the field is stronger this year that it has been in the past. The course has typically favored the players that are best at longer approach shots. However, this comes with the preamble of the event typically having weak fields and weaker fields typically mean weaker long approach shot play. Thus, if the field was as strong as say the field at the Memorial where more players are adept on long approach shots, the course might yield more strokes in a different part of the game.

The last critical hole of CC Jackson is the 330-yard, par-4 15th hole.

The hole is certainly drivable although there are quite a few layups. Birdies (red dots) were made from everywhere regardless if the player layed-up or went for the green. The data shows that going for the green is the correct play as a higher percentage of birdies went to those that went for the green and it puts eagle into play.



Joaquin Niemann +1,400
Sung-Jae Im +1,600
Byeong-Hun An +2,200
Lucas Glover +2,500
Corey Conners +2,800


Emiliano Grillo +4,000
Sepp Straka +10,000
Sam Ryder +12,500
Adam Svensson +17,500
Tyler Duncan +25,000


Wednesday, September 11, 2019

What To Look For: A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier Classic

The Tour comes back to the Greenbrier to play Old White TPC.  Here's a cool preview from Steve Elkington on his Secret Golf YouTube channel.

Old White TPC is an old school course as it was designed by CB McDonald and not by coincidence it is a well respected course by the players.

It's a par-70 playing to 7,286 yards but is fairly wide open and forgiving off the tee.  Expect low scores and most of the strokes gained or lost coming off Red Zone play and wedge play.

Projected Winning Score: -17


Joaquin Niemann +2,200
Marc Leishman +2,200
Sung-Jae Im +2,200
Byeong-Hun An +2,800
Russell Henley +3,300


Russell Knox +6,600
Kevin Streelman +6,600
Andrew Landry +8,000
Nick Watney +10,000
Tyler Duncan +20,000