What To Look For: 2020 Genesis Open

Nick Taylor had a wire-to-wire victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.


Taylor was at 200/1 odds and was ranked 43rd on my list of probable winners. But Pebble Beach once again proved that it’s still very much a putter’s course. Taylor ranked 38th in Strokes Gained – Putting last year and is currently 60th this year.

***

Now the Tour returns to one of my favorite Tour stops, The Genesis Open at Riviera CC.


LA has so many incredible private clubs with not only Riviera, but the newly renovated Hillcrest CC, Bel-Air, Sherwood, Virginia, MountainGate, Wood Ranch, Wilshire and numerous others. The signature of private golf in LA is these big, broad elevated tees right near the clubhouse on the first tee and it just never seems to get old for me.

The courses are very much like the vibe of the city, very laid back and informal. You’re not sweating out drives that could easily end up in a hazard like you do in Florida, nor are you dealing with ferocious winds of Texas or the waste areas of Arizona. And even though the clubs are built with housing surrounding it, it’s usually amazingly peaceful as people have other things going on besides blaring music and swimming in their pools while you’re out golfing.

The city is eclectic as well. I find it fascinating of the vastly different cultures that reside in the LA metropolitan area. People from the valley are vastly different from people living on the beach. And even people on the beach, in say Venice are very different from people living in say Manhattan Beach. And all of those people are very different from people living in Hollywood and Burbank which is a different group of people from those living in Beverly Hills who are extremely different from those living in say, Pasadena.

Pacific Palisades is usually very quiet and looks much like small town, upper middle class America although most of the residents make very high incomes. It’s the type of place where you could park your car and take a nice casual walk thru the area on the sidewalk and it be very peaceful.

That’s one of the reasons why I usually take a vacation to LA almost every Spring. It’s fairly cheap airfare at usually $200 roundtrip. LAX probably has the most inexpensive car rentals of any airport in the country and I can stay over in South Bay which is only 15 minutes from LAX. And there’s always things to do besides play golf. I plan on getting over there in May and work with my man, George Gankas, on my golf swing.

***

Riviera is great event because there’s a good correlation between winners at Riviera and how well they perform at The Masters. There’s some similarities between the two courses in that there’s a high 3-putt percentage and much of the strokes gained/lost are on long approach shots. And it also helps to have some distance at Riviera.

The 3-putt percentage is due Riviera having a low make % in general due to the old school greens with large slopes, but being much larger than your typical old school greens. And given the difficulty of the approaches, it often means a lot of long birdie putts.

While the final critical hole on the golf course is the 18th, the hole that will get the most attention is the short par-4 10th hole.

It only plays to 315 yards, but it really plays more like 290 yards with the elevated tee. In the past, the green was so firm that the best play was to go for the green when the pin was in the middle or in the front left location and then lay-up left if the pin was in the back right.

In recent years the green has softened considerably and now the best play is to aim for the left front edge of the green with a driver regardless of pin location. If the golfer goes long and doesn’t feel comfortable hitting a flop to the back right pin location, they can simply chip to the center-front of the green and try to 2-putt from 50+ feet.

There is no chance of rain this week with winds projected to be under 7 mph. Temperatures should have highs of 70 degrees which is very typical in LA this time of the year.

PROJECTED WINNING SCORE: -15


3JACK’S FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy +800
Justin Thomas +1,000
Jon Rahm +1,000
Patrick Cantlay +2,000
Xander Schauffele +2,200
Hideki Matsuyama +2,800


3JACK’S DARK HORSE PICKS

Bryson DeChambeau +5,000
Joaquin Niemann +8,000
Corey Conners +10,000
Sepp Straka +40,000




3JACK

What To Look For: 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Webb Simpson won the Waste Management Phoenix Open last week:




Simpson was one of my projected winner’s picks at 14/1 odds. It goes to show how the changes to the design of TPC Scottsdale have allowed shorter hitters to have a chance to win there. I also projected the winning score as well (-17)

While Simpson has excellent performance metrics, he is usually the one guy on Tour that I find consistently utilizes the best on-course strategy and playing holes that are in line with what the numbers project. He’s a fascinating player given his swing with a severely cupped (left wrist extension) at the top of the swing and an open club face at p6 and can still strike the ball extremely well.

***

This week the Tour returns to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.




Pebble Beach Golf Links was designed by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant in 1919 and then extensively re-designed by H. Chandler Egan. It was also renovated and re-designed by Alister MacKenzie, Robert Hunter, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer over the decades.

This is the last of the multiple course events on Tour for the time being (thank god). The cut will be after 54-holes as each player will play Pebble, Spyglass and Monterey Peninsula in the first three rounds. Those that make the cut will then play Pebble again on Sunday.

In general, the feedback I get from Tour players is that they enjoy the courses, but the Pro-Am makes for a giant cluster and super long rounds. The TV footage is usually horrible because of players playing the three different courses and inevitably a few players will get in contention and you never get to see them hit a shot until Sunday.

The real allure of the event on TV is Pebble itself (although the other courses are beautiful, you just don’t get to see them that much). The secondary allure was the celebrity amateurs playing the event. Most notably Jack Lemmon and Clint Eastwood. Now, the Pro-Am is mostly filled with corporate executives that most people could not pick out of a lineup and are about as personable as learning about corporate stock derivatives.

Anyway, putting is a big deal at Pebble Beach. It usually has the lowest make percentages on Tour and has the slowest greens as well. So much for the theory that slower greens mean better putting. The 3-putt percentage is not that high there because the greens are about half the size of the modern Tour course designs.

The greens have steep slopes and thus they need to be made slow in order to keep the ball on the green, particularly when the famous Pebble wind comes around. Thus, this is the course that many good putters have an advantage at.

The make %’s have improved on the course in recent years. This is due to better ownership that has done a much better job with the conditioning of the course. It’s in its best shape in decades.

Here’s a look at the weather forecast for the week.

So it will be dry, but cool. As I’ve explained in previous versions of Pro Golf Synopsis, my research shows that scores start to rise when the winds get 12 mph or faster. My guess is that the winner will likely come from playing Monterey on Saturday as that is the easiest course of the three courses to play.

Projected Winning Score: -17

The final critical hole at Pebble is the 575 yard par-5 14th hole.

The diagram doesn’t do the hole justice as you’re hitting to an elevated fairway that makes for a blind tee shot.

There’s also trees up by the green and they reek havoc on approach wedge shots.

This is a severely sloped green and they usually have a Sunday flag location front left. It not only makes for a difficult approach, but a very fast putt as it slopes very downward from there.

The winner could very well be the player that can manage to make 2 birdies on this hole.

3JACK’S FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson +600
Patrick Cantlay +1,000
Brandt Snedeker +2,200
Matt Kuchar +2,500
Graeme McDowell +3,300


3JACK’S DARK HORSE PICKS

Adam Hadwin +6,600
Vaughn Taylor +8,000
Nick Watney +10,000
Brian Stuard +20,000
Peter Malnati +40,000






3JACK

What To Look For: 2020 Waste Management Phoenix Open

Last week, Marc Leishman found his way back to the winner's circle with a victory at Torrey Pines:



Leishman was at 50/1 odds to win and ranked 31st in my list of probable winners.  If you read 2019 Pro Golf Synopsis you would know that Leishman ranked 1st in Red Zone Play (175-225 yards) in the 2018-2019 season.  His struggles off the tee were due to his strong right miss bias and it appears he has worked that out. 

Jon Rahm was at 8/1 odds and finished in second place.  I had him at 18th in my picks list.  I was rooting for Ryan Palmer who was one of my picks at 50/1 odds, but a final day 77 blew him out of the water.

***

This week the Tour comes to stadium golf with the famous 16th hole:



Personally, I love the scene.  It goes against golf's nature, but the scene is something to behold and there's nothing wrong with it happening once a year.  

In fact, if every tournament had this...while against golf's nature...it would be good for golf in the long run because it means more people are watching golf and more people will get interested in the game and supply their discretionary income towards the game.

But, what's funny about the tournament is that the 16th hole is a very bland hole and the course isn't very well liked by Tour players.  But the atmosphere is off the charts and that makes Tour players want to play the event.  

The old design greatly favored bombers and players that hit it long could just bomb it anywhere with little recourse.  The re-design got a bit goofy for my tastes, but it took the reckless bombers advantage from them and made it more of an irons play golf course

You may also recall from 2019 Pro Golf Synopsis that TPC Scottsdale is one of the courses where players playing the event from the previous week have one of the largest drop-offs in Strokes Gained - Putting.  Thus, I would be a little averse to taking a player that played Torrey Pines last week.

Here's a look at the weather this week:

Projected Winning Score: -17


While the 16th hole gets all of the attention, the 17th hole is far more critical in separating the contenders from the rest of the field.

Only about 2-4% of the field will lay-up off the tee.  About 10% will find the water.  Usually though they find the water left.  Rarely will a player find the water behind the green.

The most difficult location will be the back left location.  

However, it's still a very low scoring hole and the back left location is only slightly more difficult than the other pin locations.


3JACK'S FAVORITES

Justin Thomas +900
Hideki Matsuyama +1,400
Webb Simpson +1,400
Rickie Fowler +1,600
Xander Schauffele +1,800


3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Collin Morikawa +3,300
Victor Hovland +5,000
Byeong-Hun An +6,600
Corey Conners +8,000
Andrew Landry +10,000




3JACK

What To Look For: 2020 Farmers Insurance Open

Last week, Andrew Landry won his second Tour event with a victory at Palm Springs.


Landry is an interesting golfer as he finished in the top-10 in both Driving Effectiveness and Strokes Gained – Putting in 2016, but failed to keep his Tour card due to performing poorly in virtually every other metric that season. He then regained his Tour card in 2018 and I projected him as one of my Players on the Rise in my annual GolfWRX column (http://www.golfwrx.com/453676/pga-tour-players-on-the-rise-and-the-decline-in-2018/) and he ended up winning at Valero that season, a tournament that I had him as one of my picks to win, at 150/1 odds.

His iron play and short game around the green improved greatly while his driving and putting dipped slightly in 2018 and he was able to have an excellent season finishing 36th in FedEx points. Then in 2019 he became a pretty good iron player overall but started to see bigger declines in his putting and driving and his play dropped even more as he finished 96th in FedEx points.

Now he goes out and wins at Palm Springs at 200/1 odds. Strangely enough, I had Landry as my 64th best pick to win Palm Springs with 2nd place finisher, Abraham Ancer, as my 65th best pick to win at Palm Springs.

***

This week the Tour heads to the longest course on Tour, Torrey Pines.



Torrey Pines was built in 1957 and designed by William Bell. Bell built a lot of famous golf clubs in Southern California and you can see the influence he had on course design in the area just like the influence that Donald Ross and Robert Trent Jones had on Upstate NY golf courses.

Torrey Pines is owned by the city of San Diego. Residents of San Diego can play the course at very inexpensive rates of less than $50. Non Residents are looking at somewhere of $150+ for a round of golf.

The Tour will play both the North and South course. The cut will be after the 2nd round (instead of after the 3rd round like they did in Palm Springs). Each player will play one round at the North Course and then one round at the South course in the first two rounds. The weekend will consist of the golfers playing just the South course both times.

The North course is substantially easier than the South course as it typically plays about -1.6 strokes easier than the South course. The South course is difficult due to narrow fairways that are about 24-26 yards wide instead of Tour standard of 28-30 yards wide. The rough is not overly difficult, but the distance of the course presents a problem.

Normally, Torrey Pines has the second lowest make percentages on the greens of any course on Tour. Only Pebble Beach has a lower make percentage. This is due to big time undulations of the greens on the south course. The greens are a bit slower due to their undulations and they use Poa Annua grass.

Here’s a look at the weather forecast via Weather.com:

Humidity is expected to be fairly high in the 70% - 80% range. That should negate the effect of distance loss due to the weather being cooler. Distances off the tee will be about how firm the course is, but Torrey is one of the lowest hit fairway % courses on Tour and thus the ball will not roll as far on many of the holes.

It’s a long approach shot course that requires good driving and good play with the 3-wood.

The last critical hole on the course is the last hole…the 18th. It’s a hole that can play to 570-yards as a par-5, but last year they played it to 540 yards, making it much more reachable, particularly with a tailwind coming from the south.

It’s a very birdie-able hole if the golfer can hit a good drive in the fairway. But, players tend to get antsy when they hit a good drive that finds the rough due to the water in front of the green.

A shot in the rough can also make the lay-up shot more difficult. On Sunday they will place the flag in the front left location.

Players hitting wedge approach shots from the fairway will need to land the ball past the hole and then have it spin back to the hole. If the ball does not land far enough past the hole on the front-left pin location, the ball could easily spin back into the water.

If a player has an approach wedge from the rough, it’s almost impossible to get the ball close to the hole on that front-left pin location.

PROJECTED WINNING SCORE: -13


3JACK’S FAVORITES
Rory McIlroy +600
Tiger Woods +1,100
Xander Schauffele +1,600
Justin Rose +1,800
Hideki Matsuyama +2,000
Rickie Fowler +2,000
Gary Woodland +2,500
Tony Finau +2,500


3JACK’S DARK HORSE PICKS
Joaquin Niemann +5,000
Ryan Palmer +5,000
Billy Horschel +6,600





3JACK




3JACK

What To Look For: 2019 American Express

The Tour returns to Palm Springs for the American Express, formerly the Bob Hope Classic:


The American Express does not have a designation. It's not a 'Classic' or an 'Open' or 'Championship.' It's just 'The American Express.' But, they are keeping the tournament alive so they can call it whatever they want.

As the Bob Hope Classic it was a nice, little, quaint event.  It didn't have the star power in the Pro-Am like Pebble Beach, but it always felt visually appealing as usually the weather cooperated.  It just seemed 'pleasant' unlike Pebble Beach where vicious wind and rain could make the event look miserable to play in.

Hope was a golfing fanatic known for having a hook.  Here's some footage of him playing back in the day:



They should refer to this as a 'shootout' as that is what it will be with this being usually the lowest scoring event on Tour.  Not a lot of Red Zone (175-225 yards) shots and more Yellow Zone shots (125-175 yards).  To top things off, it usually has the nearest proximity to the cup from the Yellow Zone and on shots around the green.  The greens are fairly flat and very receptive and it's pretty wide open.  It's about who can get hot with the irons and the putter that can win.

Too many different courses to come up with a critical hole, so I will pass on the analysis this week:

Projected Winning Score: -24


3JACK'S FAVORITES

Sung-Jae Im +2,000
Francesco Molinari +3,300
Jason Kokrak +4,000


3JACK"S DARK HORSE PICKS

Brian Harman +5,000
Harris English +5,000
Andrew Putnam +6,600
Nate Lashley +12,500
Talor Gooch +12,500
Peter Malnati +20,000
Tom Hoge +20,000







3JACK

What To Look For: 2020 Sony Open

The Tour returns to Waialae Country Club for the 2020 Sony Open:



This is one of my favorite times of the year for the Tour as the ‘offseason’ is officially over and you can only dream of what it would be like to be a Tour player that gets to play Kapalua, Waialae and then Palm Springs in January. Then they are off to Torrey Pines, followed by the hoopla and ballyhoo of stadium golf in Scottsdale. It’s also a time of the season and with the course designs where unknowns and journeymen that get rejuvenated tend to flourish or a top player can establish their dominance for the rest of season. And given that this is a Ryder Cup year, it all becomes even more important.

Waialae Country Club is located in the south eastern part of Honolulu. It’s a Seth Raynor design playing to a par-72 and roughly 7,125 yards. It routinely has one of the lowest hit fairway percentages for the field as the average will hover around 50%. This is due to narrow fairways (roughly 26 yards wide) and the wind. Since it’s a Raynor design, there is quite a few tee shots that force the golfer to lay-up off the tee.

Despite the low hit fairway percentage, the average hit GIR % is around 70%. The greens are fairly receptive and if the golfer can find the fairway, the approaches are not overly difficult.

There is a polarizing opinion on Tour about Waialae. Many players love, others hate it. From the vibe I’ve received about the course is that those that don’t like it feels like it favors the shorter hitters too much and there’s too much luck involved due to the wind and narrow fairways. Those that love the course seem to really love the old-school design flavor to it The other factor in all of this is the expense and experience of Hawaii. It’s a pricey trip to make to Hawaii, but others will embrace it and bring their families over.

Waialae is mostly about the versatility of approach shots in terms of being able to precisely hit wedge shots as well as mid-length approach shots. Driving is also important here, but good luck in projecting who will drive well here given the wind and narrow fairways.

The last critical hole on the course is the par-5 18th hole.

Last year the hole played to 4.51 strokes on average. This was despite the field only finding the fairway 29.8% of the time. The big key is for the player to hit it at least the distance that is between the right fairway bunker and the 2nd left fairway bunker. That is roughly about 285 yards. Players that the ball to that distance, even if they found the fairway bunker, saw their projected scores drop dramatically.

Using The 65/50 Rule as described in 2019 Pro Golf Synopsis (purchase here 2019 PRO GOLF SYNOPSIS), the target off the tee for the average Tour player should be just left of the tree that is highlighted by the yellow box. With rollout, it’s easy to see why the fairway is often missed on this hole.

Projected Winning Score: -22


3JACK'S FAVORITES

Justin Thomas +500
Collin Morikawa +1,600
Hideki Matsuyama +1,600
Joaquin Niemann +2,500


3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Abraham Ancer +4,000
Corey Conners +4,000
Kevin Kisner +4,000
Chez Reavie +5,000
Brian Stuard +6,600
Emiliano Grillo +8,000






3JACK

Update 1/5/2020 ***NEW*** 2019 Pro Golf Synopsis E-Book on Sale!

I am pleased to announce that the 2019 version of Pro Golf Synopsis is now on sale for only $10.99!

The book is available for purchase by clicking the link below:

PURCHASE THE 2019 PRO GOLF SYNOPSIS E-BOOK

Pro Golf Synopsis is the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf and the indispensable to the 2019 Golf Season.  It has 354 pages of valuable information and statistical insight involved with the game. 

This year's version of the book has detailed findings from launch monitor research data collected from low handicaps and Touring professionals over the past three years.  It also involves a new Statistically Based Golf Strategy to help golfer's better prepare their rounds and lower their scores.

There is also the 188 player-by-player analysis of the 2019 season. 

Here is the table of contents (click on the picture for a larger view)