Not only was Burns in my top picks to win, but I was 9-5-2 in my singles matchups.
Wednesday, October 6, 2021
What To Look For: 2021 Shriners Childrens Open
Not only was Burns in my top picks to win, but I was 9-5-2 in my singles matchups.
Wednesday, September 29, 2021
What To Look For: Sanderson Farms Championship
The Sanderson Farms Championship is played att Jackson CC. Most players I've talked to think the course is just fine. It's a heavy ballstriking course, particularly from the Red Zone (175-225 yards). Last year, Sergio Garcia came away the victor:
Wednesday, March 31, 2021
What To Look For: 2021 Texas Valero Open
Billy Horschel won the WGC-Match Play:
If you're a Tour player or Tour caddie and would be interested in my statistical services please e-mail me at progolfsynopsis@yahoo.com
Tuesday, March 16, 2021
What To Look For: 2021 Honda Classic
Justin Thomas won The PLAYERS Championship
Tuesday, March 9, 2021
What To Look For: 2021 The PLAYERS Championship
Bryson DeChambeau wins the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill:
Wednesday, March 3, 2021
What To Look For: 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill
Collin Morikawa wins the WGC Workday Championship at The Concession Golf Club:
Wednesday, February 17, 2021
What To Look For: 2021 Genesis Open
Daniel Berger won at Pebble Beach last week:
Wednesday, February 10, 2021
What To Look For: 2021 Pebble Beach AT&T
Tuesday, February 2, 2021
What To Look For: 2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open
This week the Tour heads to Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
The Phoenix Open started in 1932 and is mainly known for the 16th hole which is a rather non-descript golf hole, but is one of the most famous holes on the Tour. What started off as a lovefest of golf and booze from Arizona residents turned into a must-go social event in the area with 'stadium golf.' In many ways, I think this prompted the invention of Top Golf and the Golf Shack, massive driving range centers that feature food, alcohol, games and a stadium golf atmosphere.
The course was re-designed in 2014 by Tom Weiskopf. Most of the players I've talked to generally dislike the course and the re-design didn't help matters any. The re-design made the fairways narrower and implemented some waste areas that are in odd positions that are not to the players' liking. However, the re-design gave players who are not bombers a chance to win there as the old design was becoming almost exclusively a bomber's track. Many of the bombers are not playing here due to playing the Saudi International which features exorbitant appearance fees that are too much money for most players to turn down.
TPC Scottsdale is more of a ballstriker's course now, requiring skilled driving, long iron play, and precision on the par-5's is where most of the strokes will be lost/gained. The final critical hole is the 18th.
The 18th is the final critical hole on the course. Most players use driver and have this line off the tee.
The data suggests that laying up with 3-wood is the better play because it takes the bunkers out of play and thus greatly eliminates double bogey or worse. The hole usually plays around 4.03-ish from a stroke average perspective. Players that lay-up off the tee are not likely to make birdie, but a 2-putt par should garner them some strokes on the field. In the end, it's a hole one should use driver if they feel they need a birdie or lay-up off the tee if par is sufficient.
Projected Winning Score: -17
3JACK'S FAVORITES
Jon Rahm +650
Xander Schauffele +1,000
Rory McIlroy +1,100
Bubba Watson +3,300
Will Zalatoris +3,300
3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS
Sam Burns +6,600
3JACK
Wednesday, January 27, 2021
What To Look For: 2021 Farmers Insurance Open
Kim's victory was fitting given Palm Springs is one of the most unpredictable stops on Tour and Kim is one of the least predictable players on Tour. But this week the Tour goes to Southern California to play Torrey Pines.
Torrey Pines is another split course tournament where each player plays 1 round on the North Course and those that make the cut will play the final two rounds on the South Course. The South Course is where they play when they hold the US Open or PGA Championship at Torrey Pines. It is usually the longest course they play all year on Tour tipping out at 7,765 yards.
Torrey Pines is a municipal course where San Diego residents get to play for only $45. Non-resident fees change depending on time and season, but they usually go for around $230. On the weekends it is a first come, first serve booking basis.
Both courses feature narrow fairways. The field average for fairways hit will be around 50%. The North Course is much shorter and the green countours are a little flatter which makes for lower scoring. The green contours on the South Course are some of the hilliest of any on Tour and they aver slow. Typically the South Course will have the second loest make percentages on Tour next to Pebble Beach. But as Pebble Beach's greens have improved in recent years Torrey may end up having the lowest make percentages on Tour.
There has been some talk in recent months from Tour players, particularly Kevin Kisner, about how short hitters won't win at Torrey Pines. I think that's a bit of a misnomer given victories from shorter hitters like Brandt Snedeker and Ben Crane not too long ago. In fact, Rocco Mediate was 170th out of 197 golfers in driving distance in 2008 when he faced Tiger Woods in a playoff to win the US Open.
Certainly, distance helps here. And it helps a little more at Torrey Pines than say Bay Hill, but short hitters can win here...particularly if the course is playing tough. This is usually due to the green complexes favoring better putters which have a tendency to be shorter hitters
Nonetheless, from the Tour players I have talked to over the years it's a polarizing course. Many love the course and the backdrop of the ocean. The entire experience is pleasant as if you're coming from LA, once you get on I-5 South around San Clemente it's one of the most pleasant and beautiful driving experiences I've ever had in this county.
But others avoid Torrey Pines at all costs. They can't stand the length and the extreme green complexes with 24-yard wide fairways and there's not enough good views of the ocean for them to consider it a top course on Tour.
This course is usually won thru long iron play and quality driving. The final critical hole is the 18th a par-5.
Projected Winning Score: -13
3JACK'S FAVORITES
Thursday, January 21, 2021
What to Look For: 2021 American Express
Wednesday, January 13, 2021
What To Look For: 2021 Sony Open
Last week, Harris English won at Kapalua at 33/1 odds.
Waialae CC is a private club on the Eastern shore of Honolulu. It was built in 1927 with Seth Raynor as the architect.
Despite my love for The Sony Open, it's not a favorite of most Tour players. It's an expensive trip over to Hawaii and the purse size of $6.6 million is in line with the Sanderson Farms Classic. The course design is not all that well liked either. Typically, Waialae gets a few votes for 'worst course on Tour' by Tour players.
A few years ago they widened the fairways a bit as Waialae would usually yield one of the lowest hit fairway percentages on Tour, usually less than 50%. However the field hit 65% of their fairways last year due to the widening of the fairways. This should likely help out the better drivers of the ball. Prior to the widening of the fairways, finding the fairway often boiled down to luck and the standard deviation in both driving distance and fairways hit was low. Now the deviation in hit fairways is slightly higher and that projects to help out the superior skilled drivers to a small degree.
The last Critical Hole on the course is the par-5 18th hole.
I suspect the target for most players on 18 will be on the right edge of the first left fairway bunker.
If the wind is in their face, they'll need to move the target to the right of the first left fairway bunker.
What makes this an easy driving hole is that typically it's playing with a tailwind off the shore from the east. The general shot dispersion for a Tour player has then hitting it further on misses to the left than to the right. So in this case shots that miss the target to the left play nicely into the dogleg and should carry the left fairway bunkers, easily.
PROJECTED WINNING SCORE: -18
Wednesday, January 6, 2021
What To Look For: Sentry Tournament of Champions
The start of the 2021 year of PGA Tour golf comes to us with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua Plantation in Hawaii.
Kapalua is on the northwest shore of the island of Maui and is owned by the publicly held corporation, The Maui Land & Pineapple Company.
They have two courses at Kapalua Resort...the Bay Course playing at 6,600 yards and the Plantation course playing at a par-73 at 7,500+ yards. The tournament is on the Plantation course and some of the longest drives all season will be hit here due to the hilly terrain and wide open fairways.
Most strokes will be gained and lost on long approaches and short 1/2-3/4 wedge shots. Expect about 70%+ of the GIR to be hit by the field, but if the wind picks up then some short game around the green shots will be a factor because it's a very difficult course to get up-and-down and there usually is a high standard deviation in scrambling percentage.
The course itself is generally well liked by the Tour pros, but not so much the caddies because it's so hilly. But it's a very limited field, big purse and no cut and you're in Maui...so who can complain?
It's tough to complain about views like this:
Projected Winning Score: -23