What To Look For: 2021 Genesis Open

 Daniel Berger won at Pebble Beach last week:

Berger was at 14/1 odds to win and his victory marks my first projected winner of 2021, after very close weeks at Waialae, Palm Springs, Torrey Pines and Scottsdale.  A few years ago Berger was one of my 'Players on the Rise' in my annual GolfWRX column, but had an unimpressive season.  It appears that he's finally starting to rise to the projections I had for him.

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This week the Tour heads to Riviera CC in Pacific Palisades for the Genesis Open.

This is one of my favorite events on Tour and some year I would like to head out there for the week for the event.  The LA area is a haven for incredible private clubs like Riviera, Bel-Air, Wilshire, Sherwood, etc. and the Pacific Palisades area was recently rated the best place to live in Los Angeles.  

It also marks the end of tournaments played on different courses which means better television coverage and less of a hassle for statisticians like myself.  And another biggie is that traditionally performance at Riviera correlates to performance at the Masters as it's a heavy Red Zone play course that can be difficult to avoid 3-putts on.

This course is considered one of the best on Tour by the Tour players.  The only thing they don't like about the event is the heavy traffic, but with COVID-19 I'm guessing the traffic will be much better.

As I mentioned earlier, this is very much a Red Zone course.  A significant amount of strokes can be gained off the tee by the more effective drivers on Tour who are long off the tee.  Effective drivers on Tour that do it thru driving accuracy are not likely to gain many strokes off the tee.  

The 18th is the last critical hole on the course, but the 10th hole will be the most notorious hole.

The play on this hole should be to hit driver regardless of pin location.  The target is just left of the green.  However, the pin locations do play a major role in how this hole plays.

The middle pin location (#2) and the back pin locations (#1 and #4) will likely play to over par for the event.  For players that miss the green off the tee to the left, if they don't feel comfortable with a flop shot over the bunker to pin locations #1, #2 and #4 they should just chip to the front-center of the green, 2-putt and make par and go to the 11th hole and still gain some strokes on the field.

The problem became about 6 years ago when Riviera's greens were about as receptive as my driveway.  This made the hole play completely different because even trying to chip a ball 20 yards to the front-center of the green was difficult and hitting a flop from the rough to pin locations #1 and #4 was impossible.  In that scenario, players were better off laying up off the tee to locations #1 and #4.

In that scenario they wanted a target that is at the left corner of the left fairway bunker and to hit a shot that is 225-240 yards.  

This is what the golfers that lay-up on #10 should be trying to do.  However, unless the pin locations are at the back-right and the greens are cement hard, the best play is to 'go broadway' and hit driver.

Projected Winning Score:   -13

3JACK'S FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson +550

Jon Rahm +1,200

Rory McIlroy +1,300

Patrick Cantlay +1,400

Bryson DeChambeau +1,400

Xander Schauffele +1,400

Tony Finau +2,500

Victor Hovland +3,000

3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Cameron Davis +8,000

Corey Conners +15,000

3JACK