Saw the trailer for the movie ‘Moneyball’ last week.
The movie is based on the book ‘Moneyball’ written by Michael Lewis. Moneyball is about how Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane utilized detailed and advanced statistics instead of conventional scouting wisdom to develop his Oakland A’s squads. In baseball a team can have an unlimited payroll (although there is a tax added to that payroll if it goes over a certain amount). So teams like the Red Sox can have a $120 million payroll. But, teams like the A’s who are in a small market (and quite frankly, have owners who want to keep the revenues for themselves), may have a payroll of only $50 million. In baseball in particular, while it’s a team sport…if one can buy truly the best players, they are likely to put forth the best team.
Since Beane was only afforded a very small payroll by baseball standards, he needed to come up with alternative ways to find players that were very productive, but the team could afford. Thus, SABRmetrics (which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research) comes into the fold.
As shown in the trailer, the character played by Jonah Hill (in real life, Peter Podestra), tells Beane that you’re looking to buy runs…not players. What they really don’t go into is that the big factor that contributes to runs in baseball is what they call ‘on base percentage.’ Furthermore, on base percentage at the time Beane was taking over the A’s was greatly undervalued by the entire league. Obviously a player like Albert Pujols, who commands a huge salary, will have a high on base percentage because he hits for a high average and for power. Between those two he will also force a lot of walks and get on base a high percentage of the time. But, the A’s could never afford a player like Pujols. Instead, they would go after journeymen like Scott Hatteberg who had moderate power and may bat about .270 or so, but they have a ‘good eye’ and draw a ton of walks and may get their on base percentage up to .400 or so, which is superb. And ‘Moneyball’ revolved around getting a lot of players like that. For the rest of Moneyball, I recommend getting the book or checking out the Wikipedia page on it http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moneyball
So, how does that apply to golf? The golf version of ‘Moneyball’ is about trying to gain strokes and to prevent strokes lost. In fact, it’s really more about not losing strokes than anything. And whereas On Base Percentage is the biggest factor towards run scored, my statistical research shows me that Danger Zone play is the biggest factor towards strokes lost. And the other stats like Putts Gained, Advanced Total Driving and Adjusted Short Game are other factors. However, like On Base Percentage 10 years ago when Beane started out with the A’s…Danger Zone play is very undervalued by golfers all across the board. Mainly because there’s a chance that they may only hit a club that they use in the Danger Zone, once a round. For instance, my typical ‘Danger Zone’ clubs are my 3 iron (goes about 220 yards) thru my 6-iron (goes about 180 yards). I may play a course where I almost never use my 3-iron and may hit my 4-iron once on a par-3, my 5-iron once on a par-4, and my 6-iron twice…one time on a par-3 and one time on a par-4.
Conventional wisdom will have golfers warming up with a wedge, then hitting a ton of 7-irons, then a few 5-irons, then hitting a bunch of drivers. Why? ‘I may use the 4-iron once today.’ But that one time you use the 4-iron could cause the golfer to lose 2 strokes, easily. Or that 5-iron you hit and found the green but was 50 feet away and you 3-putted from wasn’t really a putting issue, it was a ballstriking issue. Hit that 5-iron to 30 feet and now a 2-putt is much easier. Hit a really great one to 10 feet and make the putt, now you’re well ahead of where most golfers are.
Anyway, here are my top picks for this week.
Hunter Mahan
Bubba Watson
JB Holmes
Chris Couch
Kyle Stanley
Value Pick: Scott Stallings
Advanced Total Driving
1…Bubba Watson
2…Boo Weekley
3…David Toms
4…Hunter Mahan
5…Chez Reavie
6…Heath Slocum
7…Dustin Johnson
8…Graeme McDowell
9…John Merrick
10…Bo Van Pelt
11…Brandt Jobe
12…Tom Gillis
13…Keegan Bradley
14…Gary Woodland
15…Nick Watney
16…John Rollins
17…Bill Haas
18…Justin Hicks
19…J.J. Henry
20…Webb Simpson
176…Kevin Kisner
177…Shaun Micheel
178…Martin Piller
179…Derek Lamely
180…Paul Stankowski
181…Kevin Na
182…Michael Sim
183…Chad Collins
184…Bio Kim
185…Anthony Kim
Adjusted Danger Zone Ranking
1…Phil Mickelson
2…David Toms
3…Robert Garrigus
4…Scott Stallings
5…Rickie Fowler
6…Padraig Harrington
7…Dustin Johnson
8…Nick Watney
9…Davis Love III
10…Alex Cejka
11…John Senden
12…Sergio Garcia
13…Boo Weekley
14…Brendan Steele
15…Peter Tomasulo
16…Heath Slocum
17…Robert Allenby
18…Chris Kirk
19…Charley Hoffman
20…Brandt Snedeker
176…Scott McCarron
177…Greg Chalmers
178…James Driscoll
179…Kevin Kisner
180…Rich Beem
181…Charlie Wi
182…John Merrick
183…Bio Kim
184…Michael Sim
185…Henrik Stenson
Adjusted Short Game (0-20 yards)
1…James Driscoll
2…Jonathan Byrd
3…Brian Gay
4…Ben Crane
5…Steve Flesch
6…Michael Bradley
7…Ricky Barnes
8…Rod Pampling
9…Kevin Sutherland
10…D.A. Points
11…Aaron Baddeley
12…Nick Watney
13…Bill Haas
14…George McNeill
15…Scott Gutschewski
16…Stewart Cink
17…Greg Chalmers
18…Chris Riley
19…Rory Sabbatini
20…Steve Stricker
176…Ben Martin
177…David Duval
178…Harrison Frazar
179…Graeme McDowell
180…Sunghoon Kang
181…Alex Prugh
182…Robert Garrigus
183…Henrik Stenson
184…Garrett Willis
185…Billy Horschel
PUTTS GAINED (VIA PGATOUR.COM)
1…Greg Chalmers
2…Charlie Wi
3…Brandt Snedeker
4…Lucas Glover
5…Steve Stricker
6…Luke Donald
7…Michael Putnam
8…Zach Johnson
9…Kevin Na
10…Kent Jones
11…Padraig Harrington
12…Henrik Stenson
13…Ryan Moore
14…Brian Gay
15…Angel Cabrera
16…Nick Watney
17…Vaughn Taylor
18…Y.E. Yang
19…Ben Martin
20…David Toms
178…Kris Blanks
179…Paul Goydos
180…Scott Gutschewski
181…Jeff Maggert
182…Kyle Stanley
183…Adam Scott
184…D.J. Trahan
185…Heath Slocum
186…Boo Weekley
3JACK
No comments:
Post a Comment