Golf Strategy Thoughts Part II

In part II of ‘Statistical Golf Strategy’, I’ll examine the strategy for par-5’s.

THE IMPORTANCE OF GO FOR ITS

Here’s how the PGA Tour defines a player going for a par-5 in two.

A player is assumed to be going for the green if the second shot on a par 5 lands on or around the green. If the second shot on a par 5 lands in the water, it is included as well. Note: 'Around the green' indicates the ball is within 30 yards of the edge of the green.

Going For It percentage also has a very strong correlation to the player’s scoring average on par-5’s. Take a look at the top 20 players in Go For It Percentage in 2010 and their score, Relative to Par, on those holes that they went for the green in two.

1…Dustin Johnson……..71.85……-98
2…Rory McIlroy………...68.28……-52
3…Graham DeLaet….…..67.7……-99
4…Robert Garrigus……..67.62……-72
5…J.B. Holmes…….…..67.31……-140
6…Angel Cabrera…….....66.15……-73
7…Charley Hoffman……..66.08……-111
8…Chris Couch……...…..65.74……-76
9…Brett Wetterich…...…..65.41……-57
10…Charles Warren…..…..65.33……-68
11…Martin Laird……...…..64.93……-105
12…Phil Mickelson…….....64.84……-88
13…John Daly………..…..64.24……-53
14…D.J. Trahan……….....64.09……-110
15…Aaron Baddeley……..63.88……-123
16…Bubba Watson……...61.69……-114
17…Nick Watney…….…..61.45……-90
18…Lucas Glover………...61.36……-79
19…James Driscoll…...…..60.75……-91
20…Hunter Mahan…...…..60.32……-77

Now take a look at the bottom 20 players in 2010.

173…Michael Bradley……..33.86……-46
174…Skip Kendall………....33.52……-20
175…Michael Connell……..33.33……-56
176…Vance Veazey……....33.14……-28
177…Tom Pernice, Jr.……..33.00……-34
178…Jeff Quinney………....32.84……-51
179…Justin Bolli…………...32.67……-25
180…Justin Leonard…….…..32.3……-42
181…Luke Donald…….…..32.09……-42
182…Jay Williamson……..31.73……-31
183…Ben Curtis…………..30.53……-33
184…Bryce Molder…….…..29.92……-47
185…Paul Goydos……..…..29.37……-30
186…Greg Kraft…………....28.15……-18
187…Brent Delahoussay.....27.61……-20
188…Tim Clark……………...26.18……-37
189…Omar Uresti…………...25.12……-18
190…Brian Gay………….…..22.97……-34
191…Brad Faxon………..…..21.11……-17
192…Craig Bowden………....21.02……-17

Remember, just because a golfer goes for it in two, doesn’t mean that they actually hit the green. It also doesn’t mean that they didn’t go in the water. It just means that they went for it.

Part of the skill it takes to have a high ‘go for it’ percentage is obviously power. But don’t judge that too much because like the statistic says….if you get the ball within 30 yards of the green on the 2nd shot, that’s considered ‘going for it in two.’ So let’s say you hit driver down the middle and you have 300 to the flag stick. Let’s say you hit your 3-wood on the 2nd shot and the ball winds up 25 yards from the edge of the green. You may have a 50 yard pitch shot to the *flag*, but it’s considered a ‘go for it’ because your ball was within 30 yards of the *edge of the green.*

This tells me one big thing, laying up is vastly overrated and most of the time if you lay up just show you can have a full shot into the flag instead of a half shot, you’re making a very dumb decision.



FORM FOLLOWS FUNCTION

In golf course design, there’s a rule called ‘form follows function.’ In layman’s terms, we don’t want to design a hole with a tiny green if we have long irons coming in on the approach shot and vice versa. Typically a par-5 is designed to have a short iron into the green. With that, our ‘Birdie Zone’, ‘Safe Zone’ and ‘Danger Zone’ differs.

Now, one could argue that ‘well, your Danger Zone rankings are obsolete because they don’t take into consideration the change in the par-5 Danger Zone.’ I can agree with that notion somewhat, but I would imagine that the Tour pros are very rarely ever in the par-5 Danger Zone.

Danger Zone par-5 = 150-200 yard approach shot
Safe Zone par-5 = 61 – 149 yards approach shot
Birdie Zone par-5 = 60 or less yards approach shot

Also, from my correspondence with the course architects, they generally have two distinct par-5 designs.

1. 520 yards or less par-5 usually with water in front of the green.
2. 570 yards or more par-5

The shorter par-5 is another ‘risk vs. reward’ type of par-5. The statistics tell us that we want to be able to go for that one as often as we can. The 570+ yard par-5 is designed to *not* be a birdie hole as a par-5. From there, anything between those yardages are par-5’s with different purposes.


THE DRINK


Most par-5’s under 570 yards usually will have some sort of water by the green to scare golfers for going for it in two. Sometimes they may use bunkers or O.B instead.

In the par-4 strategy, I discussed how we really need to minimize our risk of going O.B. or in the water off the TEE to almost nil. On par-5’s, my theory is that we can risk the water on the 2nd shot a lot more than on the tee shot in a par-4.

Why?

Because if we do find the drink on the 2nd shot, it’s usually going to be a drop close to the green where we should likely make no worse than bogey and can still have a chance at par because it’s usually just a wedge into the green. Hit one in the water on a par-4 tee shot, then you have a drop and a longer club into the hole and now double bogey is likely to come into the equation.

That does not mean to blindly go for every green. It just means that you should risk it more. For instance, #6 at Eastwood will likely leave me with at least a carry of 250 yards over water. I just do not have 250 yards of carry with a 3-wood off the deck in my game. So instead I lay up and understand that it is likely a par hole because the pond is so large that it’s difficult to get the ball within 60 yards of the green. The goal is to get the lay up shot within 60 yards, but that is usually a tall task because then you risk hitting your layup shot in the water.


TEE SHOT STRATEGY ON A PAR-5

In the par-4 tee shot strategy, I stated that if there’s a good chance your approach will wind up being in the Danger Zone (175-225 yards), you’re better off on focusing on making solid contact and finding the fairway because even the Tour pros are much more inaccurate from the rough than the fairway from this distance.

However, I believe that since going for it is so beneficial on a par-5, golfers should be more inclined to really bomb one off the tee here. However, there are some caveats to this rule.

I would be more inclined to try and hit it longer and harder than I would be to try and cut corners off the tee. Obviously, there are exceptions to the rule. #10 at Eastwood is a 610 yard par-5 that has a 90* dogleg left. The golfer has to cut the corner to some degree off the tee. If they shy away from the corner, they’ll likely wind up in the par-5 Danger Zone (150-200 yards).

But like par-4’s, if you impeded your second shot it’s an easy way to add strokes to your score. On par-5’s that are relatively open, I’d be more inclined to swing more aggressively and focus on hitting up on the ball more to gain more distance. If I execute decently enough, now I’m left with a shorter 2nd shot and a better chance of going for it in two. However, I would first try to figure out the hole itself.

Again, #6 at Eastwood is a great example. I know that I can bomb one and still have a 250 yard carry over the water (the hole is a dogleg right, so it requires power and being able to cut the corner just enough). Assessing the risk vs. the reward, my feeling is that I’m better off on concentrating on making good contact and finding the fairway, then laying up and having a short wedge into the green. It’s not a good idea to let the shaft out on that drive.


SYNOPSIS

- 520 yards or less = risk vs. reward hole

- 570+ yards = not intended to be a birdie hole

- Going For It in two is usually a very good thing

- Birdie Zone, Danger Zone and Safe Zone all change due to form following function

- Don’t get too scared about water up by the green

- Be more inclined to let the shaft out on the tee shot

- Be more inclined to hit it hard over cutting the corner.





3JACK