Here’s
a table showing the make percentage on Tour between birdie and non-birdie
putts:
The point being is that in order to make birdies, you have to get birdie
shots closer to the cup and give yourself more opportunities inside the cup. The
‘cut-off’ point seems to be 20 feet and in.
Here’s a look at Mickelson’s
main metrics:
60 (-11) 11 birdies 0 Bogeys 8/14 fairways
hit 16/18 GIR -13 G.I.R.O. Score
Phil had 12 birdie putts inside 20
feet. He made 10 of those birdie putts.
His other birdie came on a putt
on the par-4 1st hole where he made a 22-footer.
I’m sure some will say
‘well, he’s a bomb-n-gouger and that’s why he went low.’ Well, not
quite.
His average drive went 296 yards.
Like he typically has
done, he has driven the ball ineffectively by Tour standards.
He found
deep rough on #2 from a wayward tee shot, flew it over the green and then had to
make a nice up-and-down to save par.
He found the fairway bunker on the
par-5 3rd hole which cost him being able to go for the green in two shots. He
laid up, then stiff a wedge to a less than 2 feet and made birdie.
Phil
found the deep rough off the tee on #6 and missed the green and had to get
up-and-down for par.
He found the deep rough on #11 and stiffed one from
178 yards to 8-feet and made the birdie.
He found the fairway bunker
again on #13 and could only hit his next shot about 90 yards, then stiffed his
next shot from 165 yards to 3 feet and made birdie.
Outside of those very
bad drives, Phil was able to get another 9 approach shots inside 20 feet for
birdie. Of course, there was the 15th and 17th holes where he was not taking
full approach shots into the hole, but that is still 7 full approach shots that
Lefty was able to stick inside 20-feet from the cup. And he made a whopping
83.3% of them.
For this day, Mickelson used his fantastic iron play and
putting to get him to -11 under par.
Woods returns to the winner circle winning the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.
I did not pick Tiger for the Farmers since he was a 6/1 odds to win. However, I had ranked him #1 player to win the Farmers based off of last year's metrics and how his game fits the course.
Here's how my Farmers picks did:
Dustin Johnson 14/1 (t-51st)
Brandt Snedeker 14/1 (2nd)
Bubba Watson 18/1 (DNP)
Keegan Bradley 25/1 (MC)
Rickie Fowler 33/1 (t-6th)
Bo Van Pelt 35/1 (t-78th)
Jason Day 50/1 (t-9th)
Geoff Ogilvy 50/1 (MC)
Seung-Yul Noh 80/1 (t-27th)
Value Pick: Roberto Castro 200/1 (t-44th)
And here are my picks for TPC Scottsdale:
Jason Dufner: 14/1
Rickie Fowler: 14/1
Bubba Watson: 16/1
Keegan Bradley: 33/1
Ryan Palmer: 50/1
John Huh: 66/1
Kyle Stanley: 100/1
Roberto Castro: 150/1
Kevin Streelman: 150/1
Value Pick: Brad Fristch: 250/1
I plan on posting up the rankings for each of the main categories in 2-weeks, after the Northern Trust Open at Riviera.
For now, here's the top-50 in Driving Effectiveness so far in the season.
1. Trahan, D.J.
2. Stadler, Kevin
3. Weekley, Boo
4. Thompson, Nicholas
5. Streelman, Kevin
6. Pride, Dicky
7. Glover, Lucas
8. Palmer, Ryan
9. Bryant, Bart
10. Duke, Ken
11. Cantlay, Patrick
12. Maggert, Jeff
13. Yang, Y.E.
14. de Jonge, Brendon
15. Campbell, Chad
16. Points, D.A.
17. Kirk, Chris
18. Henley, Russell
19. Wilson, Mark
20. Fisher, Ross
21. Lee, Richard
22. Short, Jr., Wes
23. Kokrak, Jason
24. Hoffman, Charley
25. Clark, Tim
26. Horschel, Billy
27. Fritsch, Brad
28. Ogilvie, Joe
29. Adams, Blake
30. Park, Jin
31. Hicks, Justin
32. Rollins, John
33. Gardiner, Scott
34. Allenby, Robert
35. Ames, Stephen
36. Lingmerth, David
37. Singh, Vijay
38. Love III, Davis
39. Stefani, Shawn
40. Norlander, Henrik
41. Overton, Jeff
42. Haas, Bill
43. Jones, Matt
44. Karlsson, Robert
45. Gay, Brian
46. Snedeker, Brandt
47. Ogilvy, Geoff
48. Gomez, Fabian
49. Stallings, Scott
50. Garrigus, Robert
After the Demo Day on Wednesday, about 200 instructors got together for an Open Forum discussing golf instruction at Metrowest. This was being hosted by Nick Chertock (Golf Progress) and Chris Como (ChrisComoGolf.com).
This didn't go that well as the scope was too wide and you had too many instructors that showed up with interests in differing things. Some wanted to talk about Trackman, some wanted to talk about biomechanics, some wanted to talk about TGM, others wanted to talk about very basic teaching principles like drills and shooting the camera.
In the crowd were people like Rob Neal, Ben Shear, Joe Curtis, Mario Bevilacqua, John Dochety, David Graham, Lynn Blake, Joe Mayo, Brian Manzella, Fredrik Tuxen, Mike Adams, Mike McManus, Sasho MacKenzie, etc.
I don't want to discourage Chris Como and Nick Chertock from doing it again, particularly since this was the first time attempting this. I believe they can come up with a better plan and if they have one, I will attend it next year.
Thursday night was the Tweet Up 3.0, which had another great turnout with many of the same people that attended the Open Forum the previous night. However, Tour Striker inventor Martin Chuck was there. The Tour Striker was not at this year's demo day, but Martin told me they would be there next year they just wanted to take a year off and observe the show from the outside. There was also people like TJ Yeaton, Nick Starchuk, Wayne Yamaguchi, Sara Dickson, AimPoint founder Mark Sweeney, Rob McGill and many others there. I had a great time discussing the game, golf instruction, equipment and 2012 Pro Golf Synopsis.
Unfortunately, I accidentally deleted all of my pictures and videos from the Saturday show. This was my first time attending the Saturday show and it has a completely different feel to it as so many people in the industry leave on Saturday.
Overall, the show was a bit disappointing as there was a noticeable lack of innovation and differentiation in products. The big thing in equipment now is utility irons. But, everybody has these utility irons and it's hard to differentiate itself. To make matters worse, Titleist didn't have their Utility iron on display. I had been told by some who have hit it that it's a great club. Too bad we couldn't get to see it.
I was impressed with the new UST Mamiya Recoil shafts.
The recoil shafts are a carbon fiber shaft much along the lines of Aerotech's Steel Fiber shafts. However, the UST Mamiya Recoil shafts have weights as light as 68 grams and as heavy as 125 grams. They almost look like a stepless steel shaft at first with the silver paint. The butt section is designed to be be thinner so the butt section is not too stiff. They have 3 different models, from the 600, 800 and Prototype series. I think I may try one out this year.
As I mentioned at the Demo Day, the Edel irons were fantastic:
The Edel irons have numerous customiziation options from the offset, top line, bounce angle, toe design, etc.
What's interesting about the Edel irons is that they can make the head weight for each iron to your exact specifications. If you're into MOI matching like I am, you get a better headweight without having to use lead tape.
I thought the new ES12 ball and clubhead monitor was pretty neat for $250.
Lastly, I was quite impressed with what the Swing Catalyst has to offer. Here's the integration model which incorporates launch monitor and force plates into swing instruction and analysis.
Hopefully come 2014 we'll see some more advances in equipment. Otherwise, it was another great experience.
A few weeks ago somebody asked the question of ‘how would you fit Steve Stricker?’ over on the Wishon golf forum (www.wishongolf.com). While proper clubfitting takes trial and error and making adjustments to the equipment and is not always a precise art from, I thought I would give it a shot.
Currently, here are the shafts that Stricker uses:
Driver: UST Mamiya ProForce V2 86 gram shaft
3-wood: UST Mamiya ProForce V2 95 gram shaft
Hybrid: UST Mamiya ProForce V2 104 gram shaft
Irons: KBS Tour C-Taper (stiff)
However, let’s look at Stricker’s swing:
When looking at shaft fitting, we generally try to look at few things:
1. Shaft Weight
2. Bend Profile – Tip Section
3. Bend Profile – Butt Section
4. Hand/Wrist/Finger Strength
I won’t worry about shaft length because we don’t know much in the way of Stricker’s body dimensions.
But as far as the swing goes, we generally want to look at:
A. Clubhead Speed
B. The Startdown (transition)
C. When they release the #2 Power Accumulator (lead wrist uncocking) in the downswing.
***
The startdown is generally a little harder to define as to whether the golfer has what I call a ‘hard’, ‘soft’ or ‘average’ stardown.
Generally, I like to look at the ‘soft’ startdowns, first. Generally, the softer startdowns are more of a float loading action where the golfer adds more wristcock in the transition. Lucas Glover is a good example of a ‘float load.’
Converserly, a very hard startdown has more of a ‘cranking down’ motion like a Jamie Sadlowski.
I would consider Sadlowski’s to be the hardest of transitions because he has cocked his wrists at the top of the swing and much as he can and retains that wristcock well into the downswing.
Now, Stricker’s swing…
Stricker is obviously not a ‘float loader.’ He does not add extra wrist cock in transition. However, unlike Sadlowski he does not have a lot of wristcock at the top of the swing. He’s not casting the club, but he’s not lagging it much either.
The general concept is that harder transitions require the butt section to be a little stiffer. If you’re a float loader and you go with a very stiff butt section to the shaft, it will feel like those shafts you feel you ‘can’t get around on’ or ‘can’t release the club.’ Although part of this is dependent upon hand strength and clubhead speed. Two players with the same type of transition, but one with much stronger hands and generates much more clubhead speed will likely need a stiffer butt section to the shaft.
***
The release of the #2 power accumulator has a lot to do with how the golfer generates their clubhead speed. The later the #2 PA is released, the more last second acceleration they have in their swing.
When looking at Stricker’s swing
He has a fairly early #2 PA release for a PGA Tour pro.
The earlier the release, the shafts should generally be lighter. And the tip section should be softer. This will get the launch a little higher and increase the spin rate a little, which is needed when there is less acceleration.
***
Here’s a look at Stricker’s radar metrics from 2012:
These are pretty solid numbers. And looking at his rankings in carry distance, clubhead speed, max height and hang time…they are all in line with each other.
With that, it’s safe to say that Mr. Stricker is fit fairly well to begin with. The only potential problem, is that the shafts he is carry are quite heavy.
Each of the shafts are heavy with what I would label as S+ butt sections with X-Stiff Tip Sections. Stricker also uses an 8.5° lofted driver and still gets a good amount of height on the ball despite a fairly average clubhead speed.
My thinking is that Stricker hits up on the ball with his driver and generally has a shallower attack angle. Thus, he needs a shaft that is more tip stiff than the average golfer who releases the #2 Power Accumulator as early as he does.
However, the potential issue is that his current shafts are a bit too heavy for him and that *might* cause him to lose some clubhead speed. Probably 1-2 mph worth. That does not sound like much, but all of the metrics since they started tracking clubhead speed on Tour in 2008 indicate differently.
I looked up comparable shafts on Wishon Golf’s Shaft Bend Profile software. I found many similar shafts in bend profile to shafts that Stricker currently uses. But, I could only find 2 shafts that had similar profiles and were much lighter:
These shafts are a little softer in the tip section than Stricker’s current shafts. This could theoretically help him improve some performance.
But the problem is that it is difficult to argue against the way Stricker’s current clubs perform. With the lighter shafts, he would have to add more weight to the clubheads in order to get his total club MOI where he would need it. And while MOI matching is a revolutionary process, we still have to remember that the distribution of the weight of the main components of the club (grip, shaft and clubhead) are important in the producing the optimal clubfitting for the golfer.
For instance, my irons are fitted at a MOI of 2,725 kg/cm^2.
I can hit any iron much better at 2,725 kg/cm^2. But, I hit it best with a 50 gram grip, a 110-118 gram shaft, and a moderately heavier clubhead. A heavier shaft with a lighter clubhead does not function as well for me. Or a super light shaft with an extra heavy clubhead.
For Stricker, with the fairly hard transition and earlier than average release, he could very well hit it best with a 50 gram grip, heavy shafts, and average clubhead weight.
These are just the many factors one has to consider with clubfitting optimization. And one cannot just go with what should work in theory. But, there is always the possibility that even Tour players are not quite optimized with clubfitting. However, I think Stricker is either optimized with his fitting or darn close to it.
I got to the Orange County Convention Center at 8:30 Wednesday morning. I was going to drive over to OCN after I got my badge, but decided against it since I paid $14 for parking. I'm glad I didn't as traffic to OCN was outrageous.
So far, I was a bit disappointed to the point where I only made 1 trip around the range.
Not really much in the way of innovation or really exciting products out there.
There was a thing called 'The Golf Robot' that was very cool. It was a golf club hooked up to a machine.
Rumor has it that the golf robot will shut down the power of an entire city block when trying to replicate Jim Thorpe's swing.
Fourteen Golf has some new blades coming out that look really nice. I like their new driver as well. I also liked the new Yonex E-Zone driver.
I experimented with a bunch of different utility irons. I liked Fourteen Golf's quite a bit. However, Titleist did not have their new U-model utility iron which was mind boggling and disappointing.
PURE Grips has a new grip out that is supposed to be their answer to the cord grip. It felt very different. Kinda like a putting a car tire on a golf grip. I think you're either going to love it or hate it.
And then there was Edel Golf...
I tried their regular model and the Faldo model.
The Faldo model has a higher CoG. I hit it pretty decent. But, I was loving the regular model cavity back irons. They look great, little offset and they feel great.
They moved the CoG away from the heel a bit more, but didn't move the scorelines away from the heel as much as they did with the wedges.
It's a different looking face. It's not exactly some modern/new wave craze, but it's not exactly old school in looks either.
But, I loved the way these irons feel and how they played. They have that nice 'thump' to them without the thump being the divot and so much shaft deflection.
They also will be providing a various amount of customized options like the type of toe design, top line, etc. Very interesting and just a great set of irons.
You're going to like the Torque Balanced Faldo Putters. These are more like a 'heel hang', directly opposite of the toe hang putters. Leaving the putter face open isn't an issue with these putters.
My initial impression was there wasn't much to get overly excited about at the Demo Day outside of Edel.
The rest of the manufacturers were not creating anything that was eye popping or innovative, but made sense type of product. I think a lot of the publics needs are not being addressed by these bigger manufacturers.
OCN also did not have professional caterers and that was a problem. I've found OCN's staff to be great each time I've been there, but they simply weren't suited for the food service in this environment. The line was a good 20 minutes just to get your food. You had 5 people working, 3 others doing nothing but talking. Problems with getting cash change, etc.
Overall a bit disappointing.
Tomorrow is Tweet-Up 3.0 at the Brick House Tavern. And then Saturday I will hit up the show again and hopefully see some better products I didn't see at Demo Day.
Ball: Titleist Pro V1x
With the new season coming up,
I will likely be toying with new ideas for clubs in 2013:
DRIVER
CURRENT DRIVER: Wishon Golf 919THI, 44-3/8" long, UST Mamiya ProForce VTS Red 75x shaft, 10° loft
Currently, I'm interested in the Wishon 739CCG model.
The 739CCG is one of the most customizable drivers on the market from a specifications standpoint. The CP-4 Titanium hosel allows the face angle and lie angle to be bent in 2° either direction. And according to Wishon, they can go as much as 4°. I doubt that I will need that.
However, the real fitting is done in the weight weight. The head weight comes at an ultra-light 193 grams. However, one can put the weight screws in to get it as heavy as 220 grams. Furthermore, if you utilize hosel weights one can get it as high as 229 grams.
The weight locations can be altered to change the launch and the spin rate.
I've assembled a few of these together for some customers and I was surprised by how good the club looks. The pictures make it look like it would be a funny club, but it's very traditional looking from a titanium driver standpoint.
The big thing that would prevent me switching is that I hit the 919THI exceptionally well off the deck. It's a big advantage on par-5's where there is a decent amount of room on the second shot. It's gotten to the point where I rarely need to use my 3-wood anymore. That's due to Wishon designing his drivers with 'Graduated Roll Technology' which means the loft in the center of the face of the driver is the same as the loft at the bottom of the face of the driver where most drives off the deck are struck.
This is where I think Wishon is WAYYYY ahead of the game when it comes to the drivers. His 739CCG also has GRT, so hitting them off the deck should not be an issue. And who knows, maybe I carry a 9.5° lofted 739CCG driver and my '3-wood' becomes a 10° 919THI.
As I just mentioned, I do not get to use the 3-wood much given my success off the deck with the 919THI. I've considered going back to the 929HS model which is a shallower head.
WOOD SHAFTS
CURRENT WOOD SHAFTS: UST Mamiya ProForce VTS Red 75x
I think UST Mamiya's VTS shafts are very good.
I do not have a bend profile on them yet, but I believe they are stiff in the butt section and X-Stiff in the tip section. I hope that Wishon Golf updates their shaft profile software (invaluable tool) this year and puts the VTS shafts in there. I tend to lean to believing that the tip section might be a little too soft for my swing. I would be interested in seeing how that compares to the Wishon S2S Black shafts.
HYBRID
CURRENT HYBRID: Wishon Golf 775HS 18° loft, 40-3/4" long, Wishon Gold Tour Hybrid Shaft
I've had moderate success with this hybrid. I think I hit my Mizuno MP hybrids better (I still have them). But, they are at 20° loft and do not travel as far.
I may switch out the hybrid for a 929HS 5-wood.
3 & 4 -IRONS
CURRENT 3 & 4 IRONS: Wishon 555C
I discussed equipment and bag setup in 2012 Pro Golf Synopsis. For a player of my handicap, I need to do more than consistently advance the ball and need to find greens and possibly get some shots inside 30 feet when I'm in the Danger Zone (175-225 yards).
Generally, the best Danger Zone players on Tour have carried a bag setup of:
Driver
3-wood
Hybrid/2-iron/5-wood
3 iron thru PW
SW
LW
Putter
I currently hit my 3-iron decent and the 4-iron may be my best iron in the bag next to my 6-iron. But, the difference from iron to iron has improved tremendously since I went to MOI matching in place of swingweight matching.
However, I'm always looking for an edge. I think the reason why the better Danger Zone players on Tour use that setup is not only do they tend to be precise enough with a 3 & 4-iron, but the spin rate is better than with a hybrid and it's more likely to hold greens.
I think you can hold greens with hybrids, but in order to hold them like a 3 & 4-iron, you have to have the ability to hit it super-high.
I think there's nothing wrong with a good player using an extra hybrid in place of a 3-iron. Maybe they just struggle with a 3-iron. Again, for better players advancing the ball consistently is still the #1 rule from that distance. However, if they want to optimize performance, they may need to figure out how to hit the 3-iron better and bag it.
Anyway, I'm currently interested in Wishon's 870TI model.
The combination of forgiveness, distance and lower CoG makes me think it's worth giving it a shot. If not, I can always stick with my 555C's.
5 iron thru Attack Wedge
CURRENT 5-AW: Wishon Golf 555M
I am interested in the 575MMC Forged model from Wishon Golf.
Wishon has recently introduced two versions of the 575MMC. The cavity backs go from 3 iron thru AW and the Muscle Backs go from 5-iron thru AW.
I would probably go with a CB 5-iron and then muscle in the 6-AW. That would help transition from the larger 870TI 3 & 4-iron heads. These heads are the smallest of Wishon's iron models.
I have the 3-iron and I like it. I hit it about 5-10 yards further than my 555C 3-iron on a good strike. But overall I think the difference from the 555C is negligible. However, I think rest of the irons may provide a little higher ball flight an added distance. The only thing I don't like is the chrome finish.
Last year, Brian Gay changed swing instructors. At the time, I imagined that he likely had some concerns about his shrinking distance off the tee and his clubhead speed getting slower. This drew some question marks from some people close to Brian since he had such a successful period from 2008-2010 with an instructor he started working with in 2007. In fact Gay’s caddy, Kip Henley, tweeted how he had some doubts about the switch this past fall until Gay had a successful Fall Series.
While roughly 1 to 2 mph of clubhead speed may not seem like much, it is a big deal on Tour. The historical data of players losing and gaining clubhead speed shows this. My guess is that part of it is an indicator of swing mechanics and the other part is that it will require the golfer to hit more club on their approach shots
Here
are the dates for the possible events I may play in 2013:
US
Amateur Championship
Date: August 12th – August
18th
Where: Brookline, MA at The Country Club
Qualifier
Date and Place: July 15th-16th @ Harmony Golf Preserve or July 29th-30th at
Orange County National
Florida State Amateur Match Play
Championship
Date: August 1st – 4th
Where:
Jacksonville, FL @ Timuquana Country Club
Qualifier Date and
Place: July 22nd Golden Bear Club @ Keenes Point
Florida
State Mid-Amateur Match Play Championship
Date: October
10th – 14th
Where: Lake Wales, FL @ Mountain Lake Golf
Course
Qualifier Date and Place: September 16th @ Legacy Club @
Alaqua Lakes
I will probably end up playing the State Mid-Amateur
Championship. With some things going on in my personal life like purchasing a
house, my game has curtailed a bit in the meantime. However, I plan on working
together with my swing instructor, George Hunt (www.moradgolfgeorgehunt.com)
very soon to get everything straightened out.
I highly doubt my game
with be ready in time for the US Amateur Championship. It would be a bit of a
hard choice as to what course to choose, but I would probably pick Harmony Golf
Preserve since so many amateurs play OCN almost daily and will know the course
like the back of their hand.
Timuquana is about 2 hours from my house.
If there’s one thing to like about Florida, it’s travel time. I’ve never played
the Golden Bear Club. I’m sure it’s excellent, but I think they should reserve
the qualifying sites for public or semi-private courses.
We’ll be heading
back to the Legacy Club at Alaqua Lakes again. I think with better practice and
more focus I’ll be in a better place than I was at the last Mid-Am
qualifier.
PGA
Tour rookie, Russell Henley, wins the Sony Open.
I watched Henley win the
Georgia State Amateur Championship back in 2009. What struck me was he just made
birdies one after another. It will be interesting to see what his metrics are
like at the end of the year to see what makes him score so well.
Here’s a
video of Henley’s swing.
Here are how my picks
did at the Sony:
Zach Johnson 20/1 (MC)
Matt Kuchar 16/1
(t-5th)
Keegan Bradley 16/1 (t-49th)
Brendon de Jonge 33/1
(t-54th)
Brian Gay 40/1 (t-31st)
Ben Curtis 66/1 (Missed Cut)
Jimmy
Walker 66/1 (t-26th)
Jeff Overton 66/1 (8th)
Webb Simpson 16/1
(t-20th)
Carl Pettersson 20/1 (t-59th)
Here are my picks for the
Humana:
Bo Van Pelt 20/1
Matt Kuchar 14/1
Zach Johnson 28/1
Webb
Simpson 18/1
John Senden 40/1
John Mallinger 100/1
Robert Garrigus
22/1
David Toms 40/1
Jeff Overton 50/1
Value Pick: Kevin Stadler
125/1
I will save my Zone play metrics for about another month or so
as the sample size gets larger. Anyway, here is my top-50 players in Driving
Effectiveness after the Sony Open (only 153 players qualified)
1. Fritsch, Brad
2. Yang, Y.E.
3.
Knost, Colt
4. Thompson, Michael
5. Funk, Fred
6. Park, Jin
7. Knox,
Russell
8. Gardiner, Scott
9. Weekley, Boo
10. Kokrak, Jason
11.
Singh, Vijay
12. Stuard, Brian
13. Bryant, Bart
14. Ames,
Stephen
15. Reavie, Chez
16. Dufner, Jason
17. Castro, Roberto
18.
Matsuyama, Hideki
19. Rollins, John
20. Norlander, Henrik
21. Piercy,
Scott
22. Cauley, Bud
23. Thompson, Nicholas
24. Campbell, Chad
25.
Letzig, Michael
26. Teater, Josh
27. Pride, Dicky
28. Overton,
Jeff
29. Streelman, Kevin
30. Wi, Charlie
31. Hahn, James
32. Kirk,
Chris
33. Alker, Steven
34. Hattori, Richard
35. Kelly, Jerry
36.
LaBelle II, Doug
37. Senden, John
38. Gillis, Tom
39. Tomasulo,
Peter
40. de Jonge, Brendon
41. Maggert, Jeff
42. Stricker,
Steve
43. Horschel, Billy
44. Wilson, Mark
45. Presnell,
Alistair
46. Gainey, Tommy
47. Daly, John
48. Gomez, Fabian
49.
English, Harris
50. Palmer, Ryan
One of the most frequent questions I receive is about the numbers behind “going low.” Fortunately with the ShotTracker and ShotLink data, we’re able to analyze what it takes to go low as executed by the types of golfers that go low the most, PGA Tour players.
For the sake of brevity, I will examine golfers who shot a round of 61 or better in the 2012 season. They were:
• Tommy Gainey (60 — The McGladrey Classic)
• Brian Harman (61 — The Honda Classic)
• Padraig Harrington (61 — The Transitions Championship)
• Tim Herron (61 — The Wyndham Championship)
• Hunter Mahan (61 — The Travelers Championship)
• Troy Matteson (61 — The John Deere Classic)
• Ryan Moore (61 — The Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open)
Robert Garrigus (The Humana Classic) and Charlie Wi (The AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am) also shot rounds of 61. But, they were on courses that were not tracked by ShotTracker, so I will not include them in the analysis.
But first, we have to understand an important rule of going low. Golfers make a significantly smaller percentage of birdie putts than putts for par or worse.
Here’s a look at the make percentage of birdie putts versus non-birdie putts on Tour in 2012.
Here's a good video from 3Jack Top-50 Golf Instructor, Mario Bevilacqua, on questions to ask your golf instructor or a golf instructor you are interested in taking lessons from. I will post up my answers (again, I'm not an instructor), later on:
- New GolfWRX.com column coming up
- 3Jack's 2013 Golf Resolutions
- 5th Annual 3Jack Awards
- 2013 PGA Merchandise Show Preview
- Putting Video with Jim Goergen
Here's
a nice video from instructor Jim Goergen out of Cumming, GA; just outside of
Atlanta. I've seen Jim work with a lot of students on their putting with great
results
The
2013 PGA Merchandise Show will be coming up January 23rd thru the 26th in
Orlando. I will be there along with various other ‘internet golf
celebrities.’
The actual show does not start until Thursday the 24th.
However, Wednesday the 23rd is the Demo Day at Orange County National.
The demo day is a blast as the OCN driving range is truly one of a
kind.
The
entire range is filled with different tents for different vendors. The
PUMA/Cobra Golf tend is usually the largest of the bunch with bartenders, a DJ
spinning records and all sorts of hullabaloo. The Demo Day has room for all
types of equipment vendors from drivers to fairway woods to wedges to putters.
This year I will drive down to OCN instead of going to the Orange County
Convention Center and taking the shuttle over to OCN.
Demo
Day will be ‘fun day’ for me as I will test out the new equipment and meet
friends and contacts in the industry. I will take some notes as to what
equipment I liked and investigate it further at the actual show. Last year, we
had perfect weather for the PGA Show. But, that caused them to run out on water
and food, so you may want to supply yourself to keep hydrated. The Demo Day is
much like going to watch a Tour event. It seems like you’re not walking much,
but you have to account for having to walk on grass and going up and down hills
and having to walk around stuff which can tire a person out rather
quickly.
I hope to test out the new Edel Golf irons
The new irons are forged
and designed with much more bounce than your standard irons. The idea is much
like their wedge design, fit the bounce angle to the golfer’s swing and attack
angle in order to make the divot smaller. That will in turn help with distance
control which is vital to great iron play.
The good news is that most of
the OEM’s are displaying their new products as they are at the end of their
2-year product cycle. Obviously, companies like Taylor Made do not utilize a
2-year product cycle. This year I have not been paying as close attention to the
upcoming product designs, so I really don’t know what company will have which.
However, you can rest assured that the bigger OEM’s like Taylor Made, Titleist
and PING will have the busiest tents. When the RBZ model came out, Taylor Made
had a grandstand for people to wait in line. You will also see a variety of long
distance drivers hitting balls for certain companies using their equipment. For
that, I may bring my Casio out to video their swings.
Thursday
will be Tweet-Up 3.0. It will be held at the Brick House Tavern which is right
down I-Drive from the Orange County Convention Center. Here were just a few
people off the top of my head that made it to the Tweet-Up last year (besides
myself):
Dave Wedzik (www.golfevolution.com)
Erik Barzeski aka iacas
(www.golfevolution.com)
Mike McLoughlin aka mvmac
(www.thesandtrap.com)
Bobby Siravo (www.ifitgolf.com)
John Dochety aka
Lake1926
Sara Dickson (www.saradickson.com)
Jason Sutton
(www.golfgurutv.com
Mark
Sweeney (www.aimpointgolf.com) Jon Hardesty TJ Yeaton
(www.tjyeaton.com) Dan Carraher aka iteachgolf
(http://dancarrahergolf.com/) Justin Blazer
(www.faldogolfinstitute.com) Ricky Lee Potts (www.rickyleepotts.com)
A
lot of great golfing minds there to share their ideas and thoughts. And we don’t
bite, either. I will be going to the actual show on Saturday as I have to
work my ‘real job’ Thursday and Friday. I plan on making it a full day event
getting all of the information and pictures on all of the products I’m
interested in.
I will also be on hand to answer any questions with
regards to the numbers behind the game and my work I’ve done in 2012 Pro Golf
Synopsis. If you want to purchase the e-book at the show, feel free to shoot me
an e-mail at Richie3Jack@yahoo.com and we can discuss meeting up and talking
about it. I also *might* be doing a radio interview discussing 2012 PGS because
if there’s one thing I have in life, it’s a face for radio.
It should be
a lot of fun as it is every year. Hopefully, the weather will
participate.
Here’s my annual statement in regards to these awards
I kind of do this with some caution. I am averse to taking myself too seriously. Years of playing golf will create that in a person because just as soon as you think you're hot stuff, the game will rear its ugly head right back at you. However, I thought it would be *fun* to go over the stuff I've reviewed this year and came up with my own "3Jack Awards." This is basically awards for things I watched, read or used during this year. Thus, it's not important as to when the product, video, book etc came out...it's whether or not I reviewed it this year. Anyway, you'll get the point soon enough
BEST TRAINING AID DEVICE
Second Runner Up: Tour Striker Driver
Runner Up: Rope It Golf Ball
Winner: Trueline Putting Coach
3JACK NOTES: Perhaps it is out of skepticism for training aids, but I feel we are seeing less and less in quality golf training aids. However, I think 2012 presented us with a few quality products in the ones listed. The Tour Striker driver is designed to help with the centeredness of impact with the driver. It’s also a great feeling club which is unusual for training aids. I purchased the Rope It ball for my dad. It’s a golf ball with a rope attached to it so the golfer can hit an actual ball in their back yard without the ball going more than 30 feet.
The Trueline Putting Coach was designed by 3Jack Top-25 Putting Instructor, Errol Helling (www.errolgolf.com) and allows the golfer to practice a variety of stroke mechanics and AimPoint fundamentals all at once.
BEST YOUTUBE VIDEO
Second Runner: The Perfect Shank at 24K FPS (by Kelvin Miyahira)
Runner Up: Bo Van Pelt Swing Analysis (by Dana Dahlquist)
Winner: The flop Shot at 24K FPS
3JACK NOTES: Both 3Jack Top-50 Instructors, Dahlquist and Miyahira filled YouTube with excellent videos this year. Miyahira’s videos were shot with the Phantom camera and provided insight as to what actually goes on when the club collides with the ball. The flop shot videos were particularly interesting since it explained why we hit those shots off the toe and how at the very least, the ball levitates when you hit a flop shot off a mat. Dahlquist did a great job of explaining Bo Van Pelt’s swing, which was a top-5 swing on Tour this year as indicated by his performance in key metrics as shown in 2012 Pro Golf Synopsis.
BEST PREMIUM GOLF INSTRUCTIONAL VIDEO
Second Runner Up: Stack and Tilt 2.0 DVD
Runner Up: 5 Simple Keys Golf DVD
Winner: Stroke of the Future
3JACK NOTES: Like training aids, we are not seeing as many instruction videos as we saw a few years ago. However, there were some quality videos made here. Whether or not one agrees with the philosophy or theory, the videos were very well done and enough to pique the viewer’s interest. The S&T video gave an entirely better description of what Andy Plummer and Mike Bennett teach and the numbers and subsequent ball flight results behind it. The 5 Simple Keys was along the same lines at the S&T video, although less rigid in structure. And the Stroke of the Future was another superbly executed video by Steve Elkington providing possible insight into a way of not only better automating one’s putting stroke, but one’s golf swing as well.
BEST EQUIPMENT COMPONENT OR CLUBMAKER TOOL
Runner Up: Wishon 739 CCG driver head
Winner: Compact Heavy Duty Shaft Prepping Center
3JACK NOTES: Since most companies were in between product cycles in 2012, there was not a lot to choose from. The Wishon 739CCG driver head is an innovative concept as it allows for much more different adjustability in head weight design. It still features the Graduated Roll Technology present in all Wishon heads. The Shaft Prepping Center is very neat as a friend of mine recently purchased one. The cutoff wheel makes trimming any shaft a cinch and also inserts the ferrules with ease. If you’re doing a lot of shafts and clubmaking, this is the tool for you.
BEST EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURER
Second Runner Up: Romaro Ray
Runner Up: Edel Golf
Winner: Wishon Golf
3JACK NOTES: Most companies were in the middle of their 2-year product cycle, so 2013 should provide us with a lot more competition.
Romaro Ray is a Japanese company that has made a nice range of equipment, from grips to woods, to cavity back irons to blades to drivers. Edel Golf will be debuting their irons at this year’s PGA Show. The irons will feature high bounce angles for better performance. Their LW is the best LW I’ve ever owned by a long shot. And as I say, they have the best putters on earch.
Wishon continues to impress with their new products in 2012; most notably the 575MMC irons (I plan on trying these out in 2013) and their 739CCG driver, the ultimate in adaptability and custom fitting. I can’t wait to see what new products come out for 2013 from guys in Durango.
3JACK NOTES: It’s tough to be the mass amount of content that the SITD crew provide. The Sand Trap does an excellent job of providing content and keeping their forum busy. My Golf Spy does a great job with informing the public about new products, although I feel like that has regressed a bit in the past year.
3JACK NOTES: Shackelford runs an informative blog that keeps the reader up-to-date on so many important golf news stories. Ralph Perez’s golf blog had another great year of utilizing more talented, but unheralded instructors to give their thoughts and theories on the game and the golf swing. And the top-100 Golf Course blog does such a tremendous job of not only going over the top-100 ranked courses in the world (he’s only got to play ANGC to play all 100 courses), but other great unknown courses he has had the fortune to play. Taking you into the world of the great courses like the Sand Hills in Nebraska, Hirono Golf Club in Japan or Cape Kidnappers in New Zealand. Each month is a treat to read from the top-100 golf course blogger.
I generally hit shots on the sweetspot
or a dimple or two off the sweetspot very straight and at the target. In fact,
once I switched to a 44-3/8” driver, that has increased as well. However, all
bets are off with the toe shots. Usually it causes an over-draw. But sometimes
it causes a bad miss left and occasionally it causes a bad miss right. It’s not
like it’s a constant problem, but it’s just enough to make the ball flight and
miss less predictable. Particularly if I’m hitting fades that
day.
Putt every putt out, regardless of how casual the round of
golf is.
I think it’s important to do this from the get-go instead of
waiting a few weeks before a tournament. I feel becoming mentally tougher in all
facets of the game is a top priority.
Poker face
golf
One of my favorite documentaries in sports in the past 10 years
is called ‘The Street Stops Here.’ The story of Bob Hurley, Sr. who coaches one
of the very best high school basketball programs, St. Anthony’s in Jersey
City.
You can watch the entire movie here.
One
of the main things that Hurley preaches on the court is that his players keep a
‘poker face’ at all times. He does not want them to complain and pout when
things are not going their way. Even if they screw up.
One scene Hurley
talks about him suspending two starters in a game for slacking off in school as
they go to play against Kobe Bryant’s high school. Trailing by 1 before the
half, one of the backups replacing the suspended starters, steals the ball from
Bryant and St. Anthony’s scores before the halftime buzzer. As Hurley puts it,
Bryant has his head down while St. Anthony’s storms off the court. Then St.
Anthony’s goes on to win by 15 points.
The point being is that body
language and facial expression can sabotage performance. I got much better at
those in 2012, but I still have a long ways to go.
Play more
rounds of golf
I think it’s too easy to get caught up into practice.
I think there is an important place for practice and an important place for
playing golf. Part of my goal is to find a way to optimize the amount of
practice and play I get. But, I think the best tournament players tend to play a
lot more golf than just practicing.
Eliminate checking my swing
mechanics mid-round
This is something I’ve given a bit of thought
towards in the past year. If you watch the great ballstrikers of all time like
Nicklaus, Snead, Hogan, etc., they never checked their swing mechanics in their
practice swing. They simply got a feel for the club, loosened up a little, found
the target and hit the shot. They didn’t check their takeaway or their position
at the top of the swing, etc.
I think one of the problems with that and
what is often called ‘playing the golf swing instead of playing golf’ is that
your eyes are diverted by the mechanics when you are checking the mechanics.
Then, when you take the swing you have created a habit of diverting your eyes to
the mechanics mid-swing instead focusing the eyes on the ball and sensing the
target.
Practice more short game shots with a long
iron.
I think this is what made Seve so great at the Short
Game
If
you can hit bunker blasts and flops close with a 3-iron, you’ll be unstoppable
with a wedge.
Better structured and focused practice
sessions
I’ve been reading ‘Mental Toughness Training for Golf’ by
Dr. Rob Bell and I really like it. I plan to finish reading the book and
implementing it into my practice sessions. I think combining that with my
practice drills that my instructor, George Hunt (www.moradgolfgeorgehunt.com),
has given me…will not only improve my swing mechanics more rapidly, but be able
to execute them under pressure better.
Discover new mathematical
truths about the game
I discovered more mathematical truths and was
able to identify strategies that work. These are discussed in 2012 Pro Golf
Synopsis.
I
think they helped me understand the game more. Going into the year I thought
that the biggest key to the game for somebody like myself was Danger Zone play.
However, I was only half right. From studying players of all skill
levels and looking at some Tour players that fell off dramatically like Mike
Weir, I started to understand how the importance of driving fluctuates depending
on skill level. I started to understand that for my game, driving is extremely
important whereas the typical Tour player drives it better on their worse days
than I drive it on a decent day (if I am driving it well, I can very well hit it
better off the tee than a Tour player on their bad days).
I started to
understand some things about putting and 'going low' (I will have a column on
GolfWRX about 'going low' soon). I also understood some general concepts about a
'Moneyball' style of approaching the game and I think it not only made me a
better player, but made my objectives more clear so I have an easier path to
getting better. If I can continue to learn more things about the game from a
numbers standpoint, the better it will be for my game.
Have more
fun out on the course
I think 2012 was a fun time as I got to play a
lot of good golf courses. Florida courses, particularly in Orlando, tend to have
a unique trait about them in that they are more fun to play the 2nd or 3rd time
around than the 1st time playing them. You can get fooled by some of the designs
just enough that it takes away from the enjoyment the first time playing them.
This year I was able to play a ton of different courses and pretty much every
major course in the Orlando area. Thus, I can better choose what courses I want
to play for 2013. On the list are:
El Campeon @ Mission Inn
Resort Redtail Club Juliette Falls Grande Pines Southern Dunes GC Harmony Golf
Preserve Legends @ Orange Lake Resort Sugarloaf Mountain Victoria
Hills La Cita CC
Next year I plan on playing more courses towards
the Daytona Beach area like LPGA International.
This week I discuss the release of the e-book 2012 Pro Golf Synopsis; The Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. This book is available on the blog for only $10 (upper right hand corner of the blog).
I discuss the numbers behind a golfer's bag setup and what factors come in play (from a numbers perspective) as to whether a golfer should bag an extra hybrid/long iron versus carrying 4-wedges.
How standard deviation, frequency and ability to advance the ball play a role in this matter as well as the different decisions based on the golfer's handicap, from the PGA Tour player to the 25 handicap.
I also discuss whether a golfer using a 3-wedge system should consider a gap wedge or lob wedge based on their handicap.
Joined:
Jan 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 7,575
Location:
Orlando, FL
Hyundai Tournament of
Champions - Quick Overview « Thread Started
Today at 1:19pm »
Here
are the odds for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions:
MATT KUCHAR
12/1 JASON DUFNER 12/1 STEVE STRICKER 12/1 IAN POULTER 12/1 DUSTIN
JOHNSON 12/1 WEBB SIMPSON 12/1 KEEGAN BRADLEY 15/1 BUBBA WATSON
15/1 BRANDT SNEDEKER 15/1 NICK WATNEY 15/1 RYAN MOORE 20/1 BILL HAAS
20/1 HUNTER MAHAN 20/1 RICKIE FOWLER 20/1 ZACH JOHNSON 25/1 SCOTT
PIERCY 25/1 CARL PETTERSSON 25/1 JONAS BLIXT 30/1 JOHN HUH 40/1 KYLE
STANLEY 40/1 MARC LEISHMAN 50/1 TOMMY GAINEY 50/1 BEN CURTIS
50/1 SCOTT STALLINGS 60/1 JOHNSON WAGNER 60/1 CHARLIE BELJAN
80/1 MARK WILSON 80/1 J.J. HENRY 80/1 GEORGE McNEILL 80/1 TED
POTTER, JR 100/1
Here's the players I would pick:
Brandt
Snedeker (15/1) Webb Simpson (12/1) Jonas Blitx (30/1) Jason Dufner
(12/1) Ian Poulter
(12/1)
With 2012 Pro Golf Synopsis out (http://www.e-junkie.com/236161/product/484341.php) and the 2013 PGA Tour season coming up, here are my top-10 players on the rise for the 2013 season (in no order).
Seung-Yul Noh
Noh is a high clubhead speed player (119 mph) that hits it effectively off the tee and chips and putts well. He had some struggles with his irons, but was only slightly below average from the Danger Zone. Young players with high clubhead speeds and drove the ball well trend towards improving their DZ play. Noh played in quite a few tournaments (28) and finished 49th on the Money List. That gets him an exemption to all of the Invitational tournaments (besides the Masters). He’s 95th in the OWGR. If he can get into the top-64 with some good play early on, he can qualify for the Accenture Match Play (huge money event) and possibly the Masters.
Roberto Castro
Finished 119th on the Money List, but played in very low Purse Size per Event (139th). He played in 27 events (a good amount). Drove it very well (30th) and was just decimal points of accomplishing ‘The Big Four’ (discussed in the essay The Power of Being Average in Pro Golf Synopsis).
Daniel Summerhays
Summerhays almost accomplished ‘The Big Four’ as well. His putting lagged behind the entire year. However, he was one of the better drivers on Tour from the last 6 months of the season and was in the top-25 in the Danger Zone for almost the entire year. This was done all while making some drastic swing changes. He plays in a good amount of event s (26) and was very good on the par-4’s and in avoiding Bogeys.
Luke List
List finished 2nd on the Web.com Tour Money List. I modified the algorithm for the Web.com Tour since they do not have the Average Distance to the Edge of the Fairway. What I found was that the Web.com (formerly Nationwide) Tour players that usually have the most immediate success on the PGA Tour finished in the top-15 on the Web.com modified Driving Effectiveness formula. List was #1 in the ranking. He’s very long off the tee, so he may be better suited for the West Coast swing if you’re picking for Fantasy Golf Leagues. Midway thru the season he will likely have some growing pains. I would take him in the smaller events like the Mayakoba Classic.
Cameron Tringale
Tringale accomplished The Big Four. He had some weak metrics, like par-4 scoring average and Adjusted Scoring Average. But I think the all-around talent is there and the age to have a big 2013 season.
Brendon de Jonge
De Jonge consistently plays in a ton of events. He played in 31 events and was the most picked golfer by me in my weekly rankings because of his all-around play. He generates 115 mph of clubhead speed. He has the best chance of winning 2 events of any smaller time player out there given his skill and frequency of play.
Bill Haas
Haas had an off year and his iron play is a bit scary. But, he plays in big purse events (27th) and is typically a very good driver of the ball with a great Short Game. Not known for his putting, but he finished well on the par-4’s and 18th in putts from 3-4 feet, the best indicator of a golfer’s potential as a putter.
Charl Schwartzel
For Fantasy Golf League owners, the possible problem with Schwartzel is his lack of tournaments. But, he accomplished the Big Four and was great in all of the other key metrics like Adjusted Par-4 Scoring Average and Bogey Avoidance. He doesn’t play in a lot of events, but they are big purse events.
Charlie Beljan
Beljan ranked 4th in Driving Effectiveness and 5th in Danger Zone play while averaging 122.8 mph of clubhead speed. He will get in the Tournament of Champions and invited to the bigger events, so his Purse Size per Event should increase dramatically from 2012 (184th).
Nicolas Colsaerts
The big hitting European had the metrics on the European Tour that looked favorable for a big 2013 season on Tour. He may have to get used to the courses and play in the US, but I think once he starts to adapt, he’s got Tour winner all over him.
Honorable Mention: Jeff Overton, Jonas Blixt, John Huh, Bud Cauley, John Merrick and Kevin Stadler
***
Here are the top-5 projected declines:
Webb Simpson
Big declines tend to happen to players coming off their first Major. Simpson had driver struggles, lost distance, accuracy and precision off the tee. He also benefited from a high money events that had weak fields.
Ben Crane
Crane accomplished ‘The Big Four’, but nobody benefited more from a weaker schedule in 2012 than Crane. He also relied a bit on making long putts to help his Putts Gained ranking. Long putts have no real tend as to make percentage.
Scott Piercy
Another player that benefited from an easier schedule that relied on making longer putts to do well in Putts Gained.
Sang Moon Bae
Didn’t do much well in 2012 and relied on a favorable schedule. Likely will not make the Accenture Match Play and I do not think he qualifies for the Masters again. One of the worst ballstrikers on Tour in 2012.
Steve Stricker
Cutting his schedule to 10-12 events to spend more time with his family. Saw a dropoff in play in the 2nd half of the season that was encapsulated in the Ryder Cup. He’s also 43 years old.
2012 Pro Golf Synopsis, the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Game and the 2012 Golf Season is available for purchase. It is an e-book in .pdf format and costs $10. Please go to the link below to order your copy today.
Below are the table of contents. The book is 284 pages long and deals with the real numbers behind the game and how it applies to different golfers of different skill levels and abilities. It also has a statistical overview of each of the 191 players who qualified statistically on the PGA Tour last season including players like Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods and Bubba Watson.
If you have any question or problems, feel free to e-mail me at Richie3Jack@yahoo.com
CONTENTS
Introduction
Statistical Index
Flaws
in Traditional Golf Metrics
Statistical Truths
CHAPTER 1 – Metrics Based Golf Strategy
Using Advanced
Metrics For Your Game
Tee Shot Strategies
Effective Tee Shot
Strategies
Understanding Zone Play
Driving
Effectiveness
Short Game Play
Putting
CHAPTER 2 – Player Summaries
2012 PGA Tour Players Metrics
Analysis
CHAPTER 3 – Essays
Introducing
the G.I.R.O. Score
A Better Way to Yardage Gapping
The Long Game’s
The Thing? Yup…and Nope
The Real Moving Day On Tour
Pros Versus
Amateurs; What Matters the Most?
The Change In the Game On
Tour
The Power of Being Average
CHAPTER 4 – 2012
PGA Tour Statistical Index
Purse Size per Event
Rankings
Strength of Fields Played In Rankings
Adjusted Par-3
Scoring Average Rankings
Adjusted Par-4 Scoring Average
Rankings
Adjusted Par-5 Scoring Average Rankings
Driving
Effectiveness Rankings
Shots from the Rough Rankings
Shots from
the Fairway/Tee Box Rankings
Birdie Zone Play Rankings
Safe Zone
Play Rankings
Danger Zone Play Rankings
225-275 Yards Zone Play
Rankings
Short Game Play Rankings
Putts Gained
Rankings
2012 3Jack Golf Tournament Picks, Odds and Results
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