What To Look For: 2019 Valspar Championship

The Tour comes back to Innisbrook for the Valspar Championship.



The Valspar Championship was originally called The Tampa Bay Classic and was created in 2000. Although it is referred to as being in Tampa, the course is located in Palm Harbor which is about 45 minutes northwest of downtown Tampa.

Generally, I find that this event flies under the radar as far as PGA Tour events go. This may be due to the area being, what I consider, more of a ‘tennis town’ than a ‘golf town.’ Tampa gets as much rainfall as any area in Florida, but it’s also the lightning capital of the US (hence the Tampa Bay Lightning NHL team). There’s not much in the way of great golf in the Tampa/Clearwater/St. Pete area. The closest for really good golf is either in Sarasota or about an hour north in the Ocala/Brooksville area. And with the Tour shifting the schedule so it’s the week after The PLAYERS Championship and the week before the World Match Play event, that will likely mean weaker fields in the future.

It’s too bad because Tampa is one of my favorite cities in the country and Clearwater (just south of Palm Harbor) is always a fun place to be. Tampa’s infrastructure and charm of the old south, Cuban heritage, combined with it being one of the first place where northeasterners came to actually reside in Florida full-time and the modern urban touch along with it having a sleepy beach town appeal make it very unique.

And the Copperhead course at Innisbrook is well received by the fans and the players. It’s a pretty king-sized course though. And the par-5’s are critical to a player’s success there.

Unfortunately, that means the 14th hole is the last Critical Hole on the course and it can make the event rather anticlimactic.




This is one of the easier driving holes on the course. The average tee shot will go roughly 290 yards and they will find the fairway about 62% of the time. There’s no water or fairway bunkers here either.

However, what makes this a Critical Hole is that the 2nd and 3rd shots are at about the average in terms of difficulty while this is one of the most difficult putting greens on the course. So there’s a greater variance in performance on the 2nd and 3rd shots here and those that hit it well on the 2nd and/or 3rdshots have a sizeable advantage because of the difficulty of the putting green.

Projected Winning Score: -11


3JACK’S FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson +550
Jon Rahm +1,000
Sergio Garcia +1,600
Webb Simpson +2,000
Gary Woodland +2,200
Jim Furyk +3,300


3JACK’S DARK HORSE PICKS

Jason Kokrak +4,000
Ryan Moore +5,000
Michael Thompson +10,000
Dylan Frittelli +17,500






3JACK

What To Look For: 2019 The PLAYERS Championship

The PLAYERS Championship actually started in 1974 at the Atlanta Country Club. It then moved to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth the following year before moving to the Inverrary Club in south Florida in 1976. Then, the event found its permanent home in the Sawgrass area of Ponte Vedra Beach. It actually started at Sawgrass Country Club’s Oceanside course which I’ve heard great things about. Then in 1982 it moved to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass.

Prior to the 80’s, Robert Trent Jones, Jr. was the preferred designer of the Tour, particularly on their major championship courses. Having grown up playing a lot of RTJ courses when I was a junior golfer, the words ‘big and bold’ always come to mind when I think of his courses. Of course, some of that was influenced by the Tour’s desire to make the courses bigger so they could seat more fans and have more corporate seating.

But right about the late 70’s to early 80’s, the Dye design became en vogue. Dye had the ability to create a course that could hold the fans, but did some innovative stuff like using railroad ties around greens and bunkers and of course…the island green emanating from the 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass.


I’m not a historian of golf architecture, but it’s my opinion that Harbour Town and the 17th at Sawgrass really made Pete Dye’s career as an architect. Initially, many of the players…including Jack Nicklaus (who helped him build Harbour Town in 1967) did not like Sawgrass. But, the 17th was so different, iconic and artistic that every golfer wanted to play it. And with Harbour Town being established as one of the very best courses in the country, I think it helped establish Pete Dye as the ‘go-to architect’ of the 1980’s.

The players started to like Sawgrass much more when they re-contoured the greens. Over the years it’s been appreciated, but conditioning has always been a concern. Mainly it’s the greens that are the issue. Whether they were super slow in the 90’s to the issues with grass dying off on holes like #4 the past few years. If you get a Tour player that doesn’t like Sawgrass, it’s usually a bomber that loses their advantage of power off the tee because of the design of the course.

That’s because the 10 par-4’s consist of 5 dogleg right designs (#1, #4, #5, #7 and #15) and 5 dogleg left designs (#6, #10, #12, #14 and #18). Contrary to popular belief, there’s not a lot of working the ball both ways off the tee on Tour. Thus, it becomes difficult for a long hitter to control the driver on the holes designed against their natural ball flight because Dye has made those holes just narrow enough to get those players into trouble off the tee.

The final Critical Hole on the course is the par-4 18th.

This is the most difficult hole to drive the ball on the entire course as the average tee shot will travel about 280-285 yards and find the fairway roughly 65% of the time with 6-8% of the tee shots finding the water. The other roughly 25-30% of the shots that miss the fairway end up having approach shots blocked off by the trees on the right side.

Moving the tournament back to March was a great idea. May can get unbearably hot in Florida. This is also not the most spectator friendly event as there is no bleacher seating by the range and the range is far away from the ropes. The parking lot is about the size the of the actual course and just walking from the parking lot to the course is a hike and the course is difficult to navigate because you can’t watch multiple holes and multiple shots from roughly the same area.

The move to March also moved the PGA Championship to May. I think this allows for a greater variety of courses for the PGA Championship to play. While May can be hot in Florida, Arizona, Texas, etc. it is do-able to have a major there in May. Not so much in August.

Having said that, all reports I’ve received from Sawgrass is that the course is pretty firm and that just favors the short, but accurate drivers of the ball more.

Projected Winning Score: -14


3JACK’S FAVORITES

Francesco Molinari +2,200
Bryson DeChambeau +2,500
Tommy Fleetwood +2,800



3JACK’S DARK HORSE PICKS

Paul Casey +4,500
Lucas Glover +6,600
Matthew Fitzpatrick +7,000
Sung-Jae Im +10,000
Byeong-Hun An +10,000
Ryan Moore +17,500
Chez Reavie +20,000
Adam Long +30,000





3JACK

What To Look For: 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Y'know what's cool?

Walking back to your car at 6:10 PM with your sore feet and it getting chilly out and seeing the grounds crew working at a fever pitch on the 8th green to prepare for tomorrow's event and one of the guys on the grounds crew...who has probably been there since 6 am when it was a brisk 39-degrees...driving by you with a big wave of a hello and a smile. 

This is such a great representation of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the man himself.  Where most people would be agitated, tired and looking to finish the long day...and deservedly so....you get a big wave hello and a smile like you're the long lost friend that saved them from a house fire years ago.

And every year, like this one...I see great friends like Nick Starchuk, Jeff Haas, Charles Howell III, Denny Lucas, Nick Jones, Pat McCoy, Grant and Osten Waite...just to name a few.  And it's always a good time.  It's a relaxed atmosphere that is still the most fan friendly event I've ever been to on Tour.  It's fairly easy to walk, it's a beautiful layout, there's a grandstand right behind the players on the range and you can almost touch the players on the putting green.  I've been to quite a few Tour events and outside of The Masters (which isn't really an actual Tour event)...this is the best fan experience out there.  And with The PLAYERS Championship now scheduled the following week, this should provide a very strong field year-after-year.

Here's the deal on the tournament...the course is mostly about mid-to-long approach shots and the course goes from crusty to soft at odd times.  Generally, the course has a bias towards playing soft.  Mainly because holes 3-8 kinda sit in a bowl.  When it does...it greatly favors the bombers.  When it plays firm...it starts to favor short, but accurate hitters of the ball.

Right now the course is fairly soft due to the rain on Tuesday.  My guess is that it will favor the bombers on Thursday and Friday and then it will be up to see who can hold on during the weekend.

#18 is the final Critical Hole on the course.  However, #4 could be a big factor this week.

This hole plays uphill and is a more difficult of a drive than it looks.  However, they extended the tee 50 yards back and there will be some golfers that will have difficulty reaching the fairway off the tee.

But, back to #18:

As we can see, it's so critical to find the fairway here (red dots = birdie, blue dots = par, black dots = bogey or worse).  The field will find the fairway about 50-55% of the time.  About 3-4% of the tee shots will actually find the water. 

From there, 40% of the players that find the left rough will find the green while only about 20% of the players that find the right rough will go on to hit the GIR.  Overall, 50% of the field will find the GIR in all 4 rounds.

Projected Winning Score: -13


3JACK'S FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy +650
Brooks Koepka +1,100
Justin Rose +1,100
Rickie Fowler +1,200
Bryson DeChambeau +1,400


3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Tommy Fleetwood +3,300

Daniel Berger +6,600

Cameron Champ +8,000
Sung-Jae Im +12,500
Corey Conners +30,000





3JACK

What To Look For: 2019 Honda Classic

The Tour returns to PGA National in Palm Beach to play 'The Bear Trap.'



PGA National was built in 1981 and has five different courses (Champion, Fazio, The Squire, Palmer and The Estate).  The Tour plays the Champion course each year.  Generally, I've heard good things about the Fazio course.

The Champion course is a Jack Nicklaus design.  Many people think it's a driver's course or a bomber's course, but it's a Nicklaus design and true to most of Nicklaus' designs...it's an approach shot course.

I used to come to PGA National for practice rounds, but between lousy parking and the lack of pros there for the Tuesday practice round, it wasn't the most eventful practice round to go to.  This is because the pros were coming from LA the previous week and many of them live in the Jupiter/Palm Beach area and would rather practice at their home club on Tuesday than play there.

The general consensus is that the players do not hate PGA National, but they are not in love with it either.  It's a difficult track and if the weather is not cooperating, it can create a miserable experience.  But, it's in tip-top shape, it's close to where so many players live and it will usually do crowds of 50,000+.

While 16, 17 and 18 get all of the accolades for being The Bear Trap, none of those holes are 'Critical Holes' at PGA National.  The final critical hole on the course is the par-3, 16th hole.

Part of the reason for the 15th being a Critical Hole is the water.  But the other part is that the green is fairly flat and tends to have a high make percentage putting wise.  It's not uncommon for a player to find the back bunker, hit the bunker shot to 8-feet and make the putt for par.  The only issue is that the back bunker can provide some awful lies from time to time.  But this is a classic hole where Tour players would be smart to play for the middle of the green and either drain a long putt for birdie or 2-putt and come away with par.

Having said that, the 6th hole is one of the holes with some of the highest deviations of scores on Tour.  It doesn't get talked about much because it's on the front nine, but it's something to pay attention to.

It's the toughest driving hole on the course, 3rd toughest approach and the 3rd toughest green to putt on.  If that pin is in the back right location...'fuhgetaboutit.'

Projected Winning Score: -10

3JACK'S FAVORITES

Justin Thomas +500

Brooks Koepka +1,200

Gary Woodland +1,800

Cameron Smith +2,500

Billy Horschel +3,300

3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Luke List +4,000

Emiliano Grillo +4,000

Alex Noren +4,000

Byeong Hun An +5,000

Chesson Hadley +15,000

3JACK

What To Look For: 2018 World Golf Championship - Mexico

The first WGC event of the year takes place in Mexico City at Club de Golf Chapultepec.



The big talk of Club de Golf Chapultepec will be the change in elevation as it nears 10,000 feet above sea level. I documented the effects that the elevation at Club de Golf Chapultepec had in 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis.

So expect the ball to go far and players having some issues with distance control on approach shots which means some very important scrambling opportunities need to be converted.

The course is generally well liked by the Tour players which means it's not that difficult.

Projected Winning Score: -15


3JACK'S FAVORITES

Justin Thomas +900
Dustin Johnson +1,000
Brooks Koepka +1,800


3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Hideki Matsuyama +2,800
Patrick Cantlay +3,300
Webb Simpson +3,300

What To Look For: 2019 Genesis Open

The Tour comes back to one of my favorite Tour stops at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California.



Riviera was built in 1926 and designed by William Bell and George Thomas. I’ve always felt that Bell goes a bit unnoticed as he built numerous excellent designs like Rancho Park, Industry Hills, Balboa Park, Bel-Air Country Club as well. Perhaps because his designs were almost exclusively out West, he doesn’t get the notoriety that a Donald Ross or Alistair MacKenzie receive.

I’ve always been fascinated with old-school Los Angeles as well as old-school golf architecture and LA is chock full of old-school designs which just endears me to the area even more. Unfortunately, the courses in good shape in LA are almost all very private.

This is a course that from a design perspective is applauded by the Tour players. They did make some renovations over the past 10 years that helped the long hitters a little more and thus the shorter hitters were hurt by that design. But, the course can get a little crusty and that tends to shift the favor back towards the short, but accurate hitters.

The problem with Riviera has always been the conditioning. It is often in pristine shape, but it also has it’s occasional years where it’s in bad shape. I’ve seen times where players hit 160 yard approach shots into the green and it takes 1 bounce higher than the flagstick. And if you go on YouTube and look at some old LA Open videos, you can see some pretty rough years conditioning wise.

As far as the course goes, expect a lot of talk about the infamous 10th hole

I studied the hole years ago and the numbers at that time dictated that the best play was to go for the green on the front and middle pin location. Then lay-up towards the left bunker when the pin was in back (as shown in the diagram above).

The problem is that the conditions at Riviera change. Generally, if the course is really firm that is still the best way to go because if you end up either in or behind the right bunker, you’re screwed. But if the course….in particular that green….is softer, the better play is to just go for the green all 4 days.

This is not a popular opinion with many…but, I just don’t think it’s a good golf hole design. Mainly because ‘luck’ is too big of a factor on the hole. Players can hit good shots off the tee and on approach shots and make triple. Others can hit weak shots and make birdie.

But, as far as the hole design itself, it’s very rare. I’d rather watch this hole design than a bad hole design like #18 at Houston which makes the hole impossible. And since Riviera is so well designed it doesn’t make #10 so bad. But more importantly, I’m ‘okay’ with #10 because Bell had something that old-school designers have that new-school designers lack…he understood the importance of the ebb and flow of designing holes. #9 and #11 are pretty much as straight and standard of a hole as you can find. #9 is a difficult hole and #11 is not an easy birdie par-5. They are also not holes where you see a big deviation in score. Thus, #10…where there is a great deviation in score and is a very unusual hole….fits in nicely here even though I don’t think it’s a very good design.

The other thing about Riviera that doesn’t get talked about much is that it’s a great preparation for the Masters. Time and time again, players that have won at Riviera have generally done well at Riviera. Mainly because it features a lot of long approach shots like Augusta. Augusta’s greens are generally bigger, but the Riviera greens are firm enough and small enough that they generally require higher ball flights like Augusta requires. And while the Riviera greens are nowhere as fast as Augusta’s, they have a lot of break to them which tests the skill of the players with the flatstick.

Projected Winning Score: -12


3JACK’S FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson +850
Justin Thomas +1,200
Jon Rahm +1,600
Xander Schauffele +2,200
Phil Mickelson +2,200
Paul Casey +3,300


3JACK’S DARK HORSE PICKS

Rafa Cabrera Bello +6,600
Jason Kokrak +8,000
Abraham Aner +10,000
Harold Varner III +12,500





3JACK

What To Look For - 2019 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

The Tour comes to Pebble Beach for the 78th AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.


Pebble Beach is the last of the events played on multiple courses for the season which makes Richie3Jack a happy man. They are continuing to play Monterrey Peninsula CC and SpyGlass as part of the rotation for the event.

One of the real gems in the world of golf is Cypress Point. The event used to play Cypress Point, but stopped due to Cypress Point not having any black members at the time. The course considered expediting a process to include black leaders, but balked due to trying to handle prospective members that had been on their 7-year waiting list and would be leapfrogged in the process.

However, Monterrey Peninsula is a fine replacement with stunning views. And that’s what will be talked about mostly this week…the stunning views of the area. Meanwhile, every time this year I get calls from old friends about a friend of mine that got drunk and stole a bunch of the flagsticks and tee markers at Pebble Beach about 20 years ago, only to be caught by police later on.

Generally, the pros really love playing here due to the course designs. But, they are averse to playing in the tournament because of the unpredictable weather in Pebble this time of year. In fact, this week the highs are only supposed to be in the mid-50’s. Combine that with 6-7 hour rounds playing in the Pro-Am it can shatter this week and next week at Riviera for a Tour player.

The course is mostly about putting, wedges and mid irons. The putting part is tricky because it does fit better putters as Pebble has the lowest make percentages, by far, on Tour. This is due to the massive slopes and slow, bumpy greens. However, there are some below average putters that have course knowledge and gain an advantage due to their course knowledge. And if the greens are in really bad shape, then that swings the favor back to the poor putters. However, from what I’ve been told the greens are in pretty good shape, by Pebble standards, this week.

While the 18th is an iconic hole, it’s not a Critical Hole. The last Critical Hole on the course belongs to the par-5, 14th hole.

The graphic doesn’t do the hole justice. The tee shot is uphill to a plateau. Even today’s bombers have a difficult time reaching the green in two shots as between the climate and the uphill tee shot, the ball goes nowhere off the tee. That also usually leads to very uneven lies on the 2nd shot. There are also overhanging trees up by the green and the green is a difficult one to putt on. Every single shot on this hole is tricky.

It ranks the 3rd most difficult driving hole, the most difficult approach shot hole and the most difficult hole on shots around the green. It’s average in terms of Putting, but remember that Pebble has the lowest make percentage greens on Tour. Average make percentage on Pebble is a very low make percentage on other courses.

Lastly, Ho-Sung Choi will make his PGA Tour debut. He is at 350/1 odds


I’ve stayed mum on Choi because I don’t think my opinion will be a popular one. However, I am a bit torn on this one as I perceive Choi as more or less a gimmick and I don’t know if that is good or bad for the game of golf.

I’ve seen swings of Choi just a few years ago where he didn’t do all of the goofy theatrics after his shot and thus, the gimmicky nature to his game. He’s also a shining example of how the OWGR continues to screw over PGA Tour players for other non-PGA Tour players and events, in particular the Tours over in Asia.

However, I don’t see irreparable harm being done and if it gets people interested in watching the game, then that’s a positive. I guess I just wish so many people were not enamored by new shiny objects that appear in front of them on the internet.

Projected Winning Score: -15


3JACK’S FAVORITES

Dustin Johnson +550
Jason Day +900
Jordan Spieth +1,800
Patrick Cantlay +2,200
Tommy Fleetwood +2,500
Phil Mickelson +2,500
Matt Kuchar +2,500
Adam Scott +3,000


3JACK’S DARK HORSE PICKS

Sung-Jae Im +5,000
Robert Garrigus +35,000






3JACK