3Jack Golf's PGA Tour Rundown - Week 30

Brandt Snedeker wins the RBC Canadian Open:



Here's how the top-3 finishers ranked in the key performance metrics at the Canadian Open. This was based out of 120 players (click to enlarge):



Playing well at Glen Abbey meant playing well from the Safe Zone and Danger Zone. In Snedeker’s case, he drove it poorly and struck it from the Danger Zone poorly. However, he was brilliant from the Safe Zone and made up for his driving and Danger Zone deficiencies by out-putting and out-Short Gaming the other contenders.

Here is how my picks finished at the Canadian Open.

Matt Kuchar: 18/1 (t-2nd)
Billy Horschel: 33/1 (t-68th)
Chris Kirk: 50/1 (t-21st) M
att Jones: 55/1 (DNP)
Morgan Hoffmann: 55/1 (t-52nd)
Ryan Palmer: 60/1 (t-31st)
Jerry Kelly: 66/1 (DNP)
Nicholas Thompson: 75/1 (t-28th)
Cameron Tringale: 100/1 (t-44th)

Value Pick: Tom Gillis 150/1 (MC)


Here are my picks for the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational

Adam Scott: 12/1
Justin Rose: 22/1
Dustin Johnson: 25/1
Lee Westwood: 25/1
Keegan Bradley: 40/1
Henrik Stenson: 40/1
Jim Furyk: 50/1
Nick Watney: 100/1
John Merrick: 150/1

Value Pick: Russell Henley 150/1



DRIVING EFFECTIVENESS



1. Justin Rose
2. Keegan Bradley
3. Hunter Mahan
4. Boo Weekley
5. Graham DeLaet
6. Jordan Spieth
7. Adam Scott
8. Chez Reavie
9. Henrik Stenson
10. Billy Horschel


182. David Lynn
183. Luke List
184. Johnson Wagner
185. James Driscoll
186. Michael Bradley
187. Tim Herron
188. Casey Wittenberg
189. Aaron Baddeley
190. Mike Weir
191. Andres Gonzales


BIRDIE ZONE PLAY



1. Charlie Wi
2. Scott Langley
3. Kevin Chappell
4. Adam Scott
5. Brian Davis
6. Brandt Snedeker
7. Michael Bradley
8. Tim Clark
9. Luke Donald
10. Robert Karlsson


182. Scott Gardiner
183. Kyle Stanley
184. Matt Jones
185. Graeme McDowell
186. Shawn Stefani
187. Sean O'Hair
188. Jonas Blixt
189. Charlie Beljan
190. Tom Gillis
191. Martin Kaymer


SAFE ZONE



1. Phil Mickelson
2. Ken Duke
3. Chris Kirk
4. Adam Scott
5. Chez Reavie
6. Ross Fisher
7. Jeff Maggert
8. Brandt Snedeker
9. Vijay Singh
10. Jason Bohn


182. Michael Thompson
183. Justin Bolli
184. Alistair Presnell
185. Bobby Gates
186. John Senden
187. Stephen Ames
188. Andrew Svoboda
189. Jason Day
190. Aaron Baddeley
191. Luke List


DANGER ZONE


1. Robert Garrigus
2. Ryan Palmer
3. Daniel Summerhays
4. Kyle Stanley
5. Boo Weekley
6. Graham DeLaet
7. Lee Westwood
8. Greg Owen
9. Charl Schwartzel
10. Rory McIlroy


182. Andres Romero
183. Justin Leonard
184. Kevin Sutherland
185. Ted Potter, Jr.
186. Bobby Gates
187. Andres Gonzales
188. Peter Hanson
189. Aaron Baddeley
190. Vaughn Taylor
191. Aaron Watkins



SHORT GAME PLAY

1. Jim Furyk
2. Jerry Kelly
3. Dustin Johnson
4. Bob Estes
5. Steven Bowditch
6. Justin Leonard
7. Luke Donald
8. Tiger Woods
9. Camilo Villegas
10. Chris Stroud


182. Angel Cabrera
183. Gary Woodland
184. Bobby Gates
185. Scott Gardiner
186. Davis Love III
187. Robert Garrigus
188. Johnson Wagner
189. Nicolas Colsaerts
190. Eric Meierdierks
191. Derek Ernst



PUTTS GAINED

1. Sergio Garcia
2. Greg Chalmers
3. Aaron Baddeley
4. Tiger Woods
5. Stephen Ames
6. Bryce Molder
7. Peter Hanson
8. James Driscoll
9. Sang-Moon Bae
10. Brandt Snedeker



182. Ricky Barnes
183. Ryo Ishikawa
184. Nicolas Colsaerts
185. Greg Owen
186. Will Claxton
187. Ross Fisher
188. Vijay Singh
189. Jeff Gove
190. Lucas Glover
191. Eric Meierdierks



3JACK

New GolfWRX Column: The Myth Behind the One Way Miss

We often hear from professional golfers how important it is to have a “one way miss’”and to be able to “take one side of the golf course out of play” in order to drive the ball more effectively. However, statistical evidence indicates that this is not quite an accurate depiction of how the best golfers in the world effectively drive the ball.

A metric that I have explored quite frequently is “miss bias.” This is the percentage of time a player misses a fairway right or left. What I have found is that there is no direction that is better to miss the fairway. Having a right miss bias is equal to having a left miss bias. Typically, what is more important is the ratio of the miss bias.

Read More: http://www.golfwrx.com/115076/the-myth-behind-the-one-way-miss/

Uphill Putts Minimizing Surface Variation Video

Here's a video from AimPoint Golf showing an example of uphill putts having an extremely consistent roll using the 'Perfect Putter.'



We have to remember a few things here:

Optimal speed is roughly 2-3 revolutions per second as it reaches the hole. This is often referred to as 'capture speed.'

As the ball starts to slow down it is more likely to wobble, much like a front bicycle wheel would wobble if a person is struggling to get the bike up a hill.

With uphill putts, the speed of the ball has to be faster as it collides to with the putter and rolls on the green before it reaches its capture speed.

So...the faster the ball speed, the surface imperfections have less influence on the ball.

Conversely, if we are to roll a downhill putt...the optimal capture speed is still 2-3 revolutions per second. But since it is going downhill, the initial speed of the putt will be slower (than it would be for the speed on an uphill putt). And thus the surface imperfections come into play more.

This is a good reason why it's very difficult to putt on aerified greens. If you're left with a downhill putt, it's almost pure guesswork because the slower ball speed will react to imperfections more. Thus, if you catch yourself on aerified or bumpy greens, it's an imperative to try and keep the ball below the cup.







3JACK

3Jack's Prep For the Florida Mid-Am: Part II

Part I: 3jack.blogspot.com/2013/07/3jacks-prep-for-florida-mid-am-part-i.html

From what I’ve encountered with golfers of all levels is that they are caught between two thoughts on strategy with golf. There is the old adage ‘those who fail to plan, plan to fail.’ And there is the other old adage ‘everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face’ (this was not invented by Mike Tyson, it’s a very old boxing phrase).

I believe golf strategy is very important. The issue is that it is very fluid in nature. Meaning, that it changes from shot to shot.

Let’s take the 10th hole at my home course, Walkabout GC, and use it as an example of how golf strategy is ‘fluid’ in nature.



The idea is to favor the left side of the fairway. The water does not really come into play. But, if you look over to the right where I drew a yellow ‘X’; that is the place to avoid. The yellow ‘X’ is a gulley where it is almost impossible to reach the green from due to the poor lie the golfer will likely end up with. The left side not only avoids the gulley on the right, but the lie is usually the flattest on the course and it gives the golfer a better angle into the green.

Obviously, the strategy is to aim for the left part of the hole. However, if we ‘get punched in the face’ and hit it where the yellow ‘X’ is located, we still have to figure out how to strategize the hole from there.

One of the smarter things I’ve ever heard came from Jim Furyk who pointed out that after he hits a bad tee shot on a par-4, he tried to picture that he’s playing another par-4 from where his ball lies. Obviously he wants to ‘birdie’ it from that spot if possible, but he wants to make sure that he doesn’t ‘bogey’ it from that spot. So in this case, if he were to hit his tee shot in the gulley, he would envision himself playing the hole as a par-4 from that tee shot (essentially trying to make no worse than a 5 on the hole).

I believe that in this situation, part of the visualization of the hole should be to picture a ‘new fairway’ and the path to the hole. In the example above, if we were to hit a tee shot in the gulley and tried to play it as a par-4 from there, the hole now plays almost as a dogleg. The fairway is off to our left and the ideal position off our next shot would be to find the left side of the fairway in order to give ourselves a better angle into the hole.

What I see out of many golfers, myself included, is that they either think that any strategy is a lost cause or they give up any semblance of a strategy if they do not hit a shot according to plan.

To me, golf strategy is a must. I just think that golf strategy is usually not overly complicated and it’s about understanding simple factors that will give the golfer the best odds of hitting their shot as close to the hole as they can.

I think simple golf strategies are about understanding basics of when to leave your driver in the bag, which in reality should be the golfer’s last option. It’s about understanding what side of the hole is most advantageous IF the hole is designed that way. It’s about understanding what your up-and-down chances are like from different locations around the green. And it’s about little things like certain shots playing longer than the yardage suggests. Understanding that you’re more likely to make an uphill putt than a downhill putt.

Often times, no real strategy on a golf hole is needed. It’s either too plain or simple and it requires nothing out of the ordinary. Like #1 at North Shore GC, a drive-able par 4 that is fairly straight forward.



Or the hole can be extremely difficult to the point where the golfer has to simply hit quality golf shots. #1 at Walkabout is a great example. The golfer cannot hit anything less than a pretty good tee shot and then a pretty good approach shot. You’re essentially looking to make par and get out of there.



In past tournaments, I have tried to make it about the ‘process’ instead of the ‘results.’ This usually meant goals of:

• No Double Bogeys or Worse
• No Back-to-Back Bogeys
• No 3-Putts

I have found that worrying about the process presents just as many issues as worrying about the results. For instance, if I double bogey the first hole with a 3-putt, now I’ve just failed to achieve 2 of my ‘process goals.’ And I still have 17 holes to play. It’s not exactly the best way to put yourself in a good frame of mind to come back and turn in a good score.

The other part is that I believe it starts to give a golfer a conservative mentality. They start thinking about ‘not screwing up’ instead of getting shots close. And as my research has shown, more often than not golfers screw up because they try to not screw up and they leave themselves with more difficult 2nd shots. This is something I will discuss in 2013 Pro Golf Synopsis quite extensively.

Instead, I won’t have any particular goals that I will set. I will just try to rack up birdie opportunities that are inside 15 feet and par saves that are inside 5 feet.




3JACK

Thoughts on the British Open

Here is how my British Open picks finished:

Justin Rose: 16/1 (MC)
Phil Mickelson: 16/1 (1st)
Adam Scott: 20/1 (t-3rd)
Dustin Johnson: 33/1 (t-32nd)
Matt Kuchar: 40/1 (t-15th)
Jordan Speith: 125/1 (t-44th)
Robert Karlsson: 150/1 (MC)
Graham DeLaet: 150/1 (t-83rd)
Marc Leishman: 200/1 (MC)

Value Pick: Luke Guthrie 300/1 (MC)


Here are my picks for the Canadian Open:

Matt Kuchar: 18/1
Billy Horschel: 33/1
Chris Kirk: 50/1
Matt Jones: 55/1
Morgan Hoffmann: 55/1
Ryan Palmer: 60/1
Jerry Kelly: 66/1
Nicholas Thompson: 75/1
Cameron Tringale: 100/1

Value Pick: Tom Gillis 150/1



I thought the British Open was one of the more exciting ones to watch in recent memory as we had roughly 10 different players all in contention going into the back nine on Sunday.

One of the issues that tends to ruin the Open for many fans is how the weather can change so drastically and hurt a golfer’s chances just by getting a bad tee time. We didn’t have that here this weekend as the weather was moderately nice for Scotland. The wind was there, but it was blowing about at 12-15 mph and didn’t seem to get above that.

However, the recent weather conditions made it difficult to really appreciate Muirfield. The course resembled some of the courses I grew up playing in Upstate New York during the summer when there is little in the way of irrigation. It looked dry, hard and fast. Outside of the Masters, it’s hard to get a real feel for the any distinctive features of golf holes in the other majors. But I find that to be most difficult at the British Open given the links design and the holes at Muirfield started to all run together.

A big congratulations goes to Mickelson for winning the Open in brilliant fashion, including birdieing 4 of the last 6 holes. I would put that round up there with Charl Schwartzel’s final round heroics at the 2011 Masters where he snuck up on everybody, birdied the last 4 holes and won a heavily contested Green Jacket. From a drama perspective, it was not as beautiful as say Nicklaus’ Augusta victory in 1986. But, I could appreciate it more than Ernie Els’ victory last year as Mickelson ‘won’ the Open instead of having Adam Scott ‘lose’ the Open.

There were a few big things that I took away from the Open.

Mickelson has an entirely better demeanor on the course than Tiger (and most players on Tour)

We’ve seen this all year from Lefty, even at the Masters where he played terribly. He emphatically states his confidence that he can win the tournament after each round. And it seems organic rather than a false sense of confidence. Tiger seems to saunter around the course more, particularly after hitting a bad shot. Phil has entirely more composure which is odd given that Tiger generally strikes it better than Phil. In the end, this allows Phil to hit better shots down the stretch than Tiger.


Tiger is hurt by his conservative play off the tee.

I think the 2008 PGA Championship lost to YE Yang has set a precedent for Tiger. In that final round Tiger played extremely conservative off the tee while Yang continually blasted his driver well past Woods’ 3-wood and 2-iron off the tee. The end result was Yang had much closer approaches. Tiger could hit those longer approaches amazingly close given the distance he was hitting them from, but Yang would continually put them inside Tiger and that’s why he won.

It’s very difficult to play conservatively and be successful on Tour. Tiger can do it because he’s excellent with his 3-wood off the tee and is an excellent long-iron player. He also has a knack for getting hot with the putter from long distance.

But, he’s putting his odds against him when he plays conservatively. And eventually those long putts will not fall because they don’t consistently fall for anybody on Tour, ever. Perhaps his conservative play off the tee this year is due to not trusting his driver. Either way, he needs to be able to pull the driver out of his bag much more often and be able to hit quality shots with the driver. There’s a reason why he’s never won a major when he has not had the lead after the 3rd round.


The Mickelson way works for now.

There has been a debate about Phil Mickelson’s ballstriking skill. As I have stated repeatedly in Pro Golf Synopsis, Phil is a good to excellent irons player. However, he’s a lousy driver of the ball. I have yet to see any other data that can refute that.

I think a major problem for Phil is that his driver doesn’t quite fit him. At the US Open he didn’t carry a driver. Instead he utilized a 43-1/4” 3-wood with a 12° loft. He could hit it up to 300 yards, but the shorter shaft and subsequently heavier club allowed him to hit it off the tee much more effectively than if he had used his 45-1/2” driver. And even in the end, the 3-wood inaccuracies stymied him a bit at Merion.

When Mickelson wins, he wins in spite of his driving. Here’s a look at his current metrics going into Muirfield:

Driving Effectiveness: 155th (out of 190 golfers)

Birdie Zone play: 27th
Safe Zone play: 1st
Danger Zone play: 54th

Short Game Play: 31st
Putts Gained: 11th

And that has been a bit of a dip in performance from the Danger Zone for Mickelson, who usually ranks in the top-20 in the category.

At Muirfield, everybody was hitting a lot of irons off the tees and thus Mickelson was no longer at the disadvantage as he would lose strokes if he had to hit driver, like he did at Bay Hill, Sawgrass and Greenbrier (all courses were driver use is frequent and Phil missed the cut each time). Instead, Mickelson was now at an advantage off the tee because most of the golfers were using long irons and they do not strike the ball with their long irons as well as he does.

It will be interesting to see what happens at Oak Hill in August as having played that course a few times, there’s no way one can get around the course not hitting driver. And the punishment from the rough is severe. Perhaps Phil goes to the 3-wood off the tee again (which may serve him well), but I think he has a long road to hoe to try and get into contention there.






3JACK

3Jack Golf's PGA Tour Rundown - Week 28

Jordan Spieth records his first career PGA Tour victory at the age of 19.



Here is a look at how the top-3 finishers ranked in the Tournament in the key performance metrics. This was based out of 115 golfers.

(Click to Enlarge)



Here is how my picks finished at the John Deere Classic:

Keegan Bradley: 20/1 (t-61st)
Jordan Spieth: 33/1 (1st)
Brendon de Jonge: 40/1 (t-54th)
Chris Kirk: 55/1 (t-22nd)
Ted Potter, Jr.: 66/1 (MC)
KJ Choi: 80/1 (t-33rd)
Kevin Streelman: 100/1 (t-44th)
Jerry Kelly: 80/1 (t-4th)
Bryce Molder: 100/1 (t-27th)

Value Pick: Chez Reavie: 150/1 (t-15th)


Here are my picks for the British Open:

Justin Rose: 16/1
Phil Mickelson: 16/1
Adam Scott: 20/1
Dustin Johnson: 33/1
Matt Kuchar: 40/1
Jordan Speith: 125/1
Robert Karlsson: 150/1
Graham DeLaet: 150/1
Marc Leishman: 200/1

Value Pick: Luke Guthrie 300/1



DRIVING EFFECTIVENESS



1. Rose, Justin
2. Bradley, Keegan
3. Mahan, Hunter
4. DeLaet, Graham
5. Weekley, Boo
6. Spieth, Jordan
7. Reavie, Chez
8. Scott, Adam
9. Horschel, Billy
10. Streelman, Kevin


181. Wagner, Johnson
182. Marino, Steve
183. List, Luke
184. Driscoll, James
185. Herron, Tim
186. Bradley, Michael
187. Wittenberg, Casey
188. Baddeley, Aaron
189. Weir, Mike
190. Gonzales, Andres


BIRDIE ZONE PLAY



1. Chappell, Kevin
2. Wi, Charlie
3. Scott, Adam
4. Schwartzel, Charl
5. Langley, Scott
6. Davis, Brian
7. Clark, Tim
8. Haley II, Paul
9. Snedeker, Brandt
10. Woods, Tiger


181. Jones, Matt
182. Ogilvie, Joe
183. Presnell, Alistair
184. Stefani, Shawn
185. O'Hair, Sean
186. Blixt, Jonas
187. Beljan, Charlie
188. Gardiner, Scott
189. Gillis, Tom
190. Kaymer, Martin


SAFE ZONE



1. Mickelson, Phil
2. Duke, Ken
3. Kirk, Chris
4. Scott, Adam
5. Reavie, Chez
6. Fisher, Ross
7. Stadler, Kevin
8. Singh, Vijay
9. Maggert, Jeff
10. Snedeker, Brandt


181. Ridings, Tag
182. Claxton, Will
183. Ames, Stephen
184. Day, Jason
185. Senden, John
186. Marino, Steve
187. List, Luke
188. Baddeley, Aaron
189. Svoboda, Andrew
190. Gates, Bobby


DANGER ZONE



1. Garrigus, Robert
2. Palmer, Ryan
3. Summerhays, Daniel
4. DeLaet, Graham
5. Schwartzel, Charl
6. Weekley, Boo
7. Owen, Greg
8. Westwood, Lee
9. Furyk, Jim
10. McIlroy, Rory


181. Wittenberg, Casey
182. Gonzales, Andres
183. Claxton, Will
184. Gates, Bobby
185. Potter, Jr., Ted
186. Hanson, Peter
187. Baddeley, Aaron
188. Watkins, Aaron
189. Taylor, Vaughn
190. Marino, Steve


SHORT GAME PLAY

1. Furyk, Jim
2. Kelly, Jerry
3. Johnson, Dustin
4. Estes, Bob
5. Donald, Luke
6. Bowditch, Steven
7. Stroud, Chris
8. Leonard, Justin
9. Woods, Tiger
10. Villegas, Camilo


181. Cabrera, Angel
182. Hoffman, Charley
183. Woodland, Gary
184. Gates, Bobby
185. Wagner, Johnson
186. Garrigus, Robert
187. Gardiner, Scott
188. Colsaerts, Nicolas
189. Ernst, Derek
190. Meierdierks, Eric


PUTTS GAINED

1. Garcia, Sergio
2. Chalmers, Greg
3. Ames, Stephen
4. Woods, Tiger
5. Driscoll, James
6. Donald, Luke
7. Baddeley, Aaron
8. Molder, Bryce
9. Hanson, Peter
10. Henley, Russell


181. Colsaerts, Nicolas
182. Byrd, Jonathan
183. Fisher, Ross
184. Gove, Jeff
185. Owen, Greg
186. Claxton, Will
187. Singh, Vijay
188. Tomasulo, Peter
189. Meierdierks, Eric
190. Glover, Lucas





3JACK

Busting the Worst Myth in Golf - Version 2.0

Here's another golfer who hits a terrible shot and once again, we see that 'looking up' or 'picking up their head' did not exist. Instead, issues with the low point and path were the culprit in this poor shot.













3JACK