What To Look For: 2021 The PLAYERS Championship

Bryson DeChambeau wins the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill:
 

DeChambeau was one of my picks to win as he was at 12/1 odds for the week.  I also got the winning score correct.  I was at Bay Hill on Friday and got to see DeChambeau tee off on the famous 6th hole.  There were about 5 rows deep at this hole alone despite the course being far less busy due to COVID restrictions.  For years I wanted to see a player with Long Driving Distance speed and carry to play Bay Hill because of some many of the doglegs but instead they would put those players like Sadlowski at more restrictive courses like Colonial CC.  Here we got to see a close facsimile and it made for a fun and exciting tournament.

Westwood was 21st on my list of projected winners which was higher than I expected and he came so close to winning.  The weather conditions started to hurt Bryson on Friday as the course started to firm up, but the Saturday rain with the wind shifted the advantage back to Bryson and he won.  And really the shot of the tournament was probably the approach shot on #18 from the right rough.  That area is D-E-A-D.  There were 93 approach shots coming from the right rough on 18 in the event and only 13 of them found the green.  On Saturday, 14 shots came from the right rough and only 1 other player (Patrick Rodgers to 32-feet) found the green.  DeChambeau hit his approach to 18'9".

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This week the Tour comes to the '5th Major' for The PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass.  I remember it was this time last year that it appeared that COVID-19 was going to be a problem and I went to the Wednesday practice round to work with some clients and they ended up playing the first round anyway, without any fans.  Tommy Fleetwood recorded an ace on the famous 17th hole in the practice round.  I also remember many players being pissed that they were going to play the tournament while the NBA had decided to shut down.

Anyway, last week I discussed how weather conditions can affect what type of advantage long hitters have vs. short but accurate hitters.  And it played out precisely as I discussed with Bryson gaining the advantage when the course softened up from the Saturday rain and the wind picked up.

This week I wanted to discuss how course design can play towards helping long hitters vs. short but accurate drivers of the ball.  This is because Sawgrass is probably the best course on Tour in negating the advantage that long, but inaccurate players can have on the course.

If a designer wants to take out the advantage long hitters have on the course they need to take away where the long hitters have the advantage.

1.  Wide open fairways, particularly on straight away holes

2.  Don't allow for players to carry it over the dogleg (as we saw the advantage Bryson and Rory had on the par-5 6th hole at Bay Hill.

3.  Lengthen the rough on the par-5's (nobody on Tour likes hitting a 3-wood or long club from the rough).

TPC Sawgrass features 7 dogleg lefts and 7 dogleg right holes.  And Pete Dye took away players cutting over the doglegs by either building tall enough trees or by having water too close by with a more obtuse dogleg angle.

Thus long hitters are not getting to use their length to their advantage.  They are either relegated to laying up off the tee on many holes or they have to hit driver too close to the water for comfort.   

The rest of Sawgrass is mostly about longer iron play and short wedge shots.  The 17th hole gets all of the attention and for good reason as it has increased its importance in the tournament over the years.  But the par-3 that plays a larger role in the event will be the 13th

(Click to Enlarge)

This is generally not a difficult hole when the pin location is left, but when it is a front pin location or back right it is very difficult to get the ball close and very difficult to putt to.

Projected Winning Score: -15

3JACK'S FAVORITES

Jon Rahm +1,600

Rory McIlroy +1,600

Collin Morikawa +1,800

Viktor Hovland +2,500

3JACK'S DARK HORSE PICKS

Sung Jae Im +4,000

Corey Conners +8,000

Emiliano Grillo +12,500

Keegan Bradley +15,000

Zach Johnson +25,000

Chez Reavie +30,000

3JACK